Recent polling and first-round results in Amazonas show Lula holding a narrow edge over Flávio Bolsonaro ahead of the October 25 runoff, driven by stronger support in the interior offsetting the challenger’s advantage in Manaus. State-level surveys from September indicated Lula at 45% to Flávio’s 40% in hypothetical second-round matchups, consistent with his 48% to 45% first-round margin in the state. National campaign contrasts on environmental enforcement and regional economic priorities continue to shape Amazonas voter preferences, while undecided voters and turnout patterns in key municipalities remain key variables that could widen or close the gap before election day. Trader pricing reflects these localized dynamics amid a competitive national contest.