**The high 93.5% probability assigned to "No" for H.R. 22 (SAVE Act) becoming law in 2026 reflects the bill's continued stall in the Senate amid entrenched procedural and partisan barriers.** Versions of the legislation requiring documentary proof of citizenship for voter registration passed the House multiple times, including in April 2025 and February 2026, but have not advanced past initial Senate receipt or limited debate. Senate rules necessitate 60 votes to invoke cloture and overcome a filibuster; with Republicans holding a narrow majority around 53 seats and at least some GOP members (such as Sen. Lisa Murkowski) opposing proceeding, cross-party support has not materialized. Efforts to revive the bill through extended debate, filibuster reform, or budget reconciliation have failed to gain traction, and no floor vote or presidential action has occurred. As of mid-August 2026, with the 119th Congress entering its final months before the 2026 midterms and no scheduled path to enactment, traders view successful passage and signing this calendar year as highly unlikely absent a major shift in Senate dynamics or leadership priorities.