TSMC’s Q2 2026 gross margin guidance of 65.5-67.5% at a 31.7 USD/NTD rate sets the baseline, yet Polymarket’s tightly clustered odds around 67-70% reflect trader bets on upside from elevated capacity utilization and productivity gains in advanced nodes. Q1’s 66.2% result beat expectations on stronger-than-anticipated loading and cost controls, with 3 nm and 7 nm processes driving 74% of wafer revenue. Offsetting factors include modest dilution from Arizona and other overseas fabs plus higher input costs amid geopolitical tensions. AI accelerator demand continues to support pricing power, but currency swings and the pace of 2 nm ramp preparations introduce the main variables that could shift the final print within or outside the guided range before July reporting.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui68%-69% 47%
67%-68% 46%
<67% 45%
69%-70% 22%
BARU
BARU
Jul 16, 2026
<67%
45%
67%-68%
46%
68%-69%
47%
69%-70%
22%
70%+
19%
68%-69% 47%
67%-68% 46%
<67% 45%
69%-70% 22%
BARU
BARU
Jul 16, 2026
<67%
$0 Vol.
45%
67%-68%
$0 Vol.
46%
68%-69%
$0 Vol.
47%
69%-70%
$58 Vol.
22%
70%+
$207 Vol.
19%
This market will resolve according to Taiwan Semiconductor's gross profit margin for the upcoming second fiscal quarter, as reported in its official company earnings materials.
The specified metric will be considered as reported in the company's official earnings materials. Subsequent revisions will not be considered.
If the specified company's official earnings materials for the specified quarter are released, and the specified metric is not included, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
If the specified company does not release quarterly earnings materials for the specified quarter by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the specified metric is reported as a range rather than a specific number, the midpoint of the range will be used for resolution of this market.
The resolution source for this market is Taiwan Semiconductor's official company earnings materials, including press releases, investor presentations, and regulatory filings. If the specified metric is not reported in these materials, recordings or transcripts of the company's earnings webcast may also be used.
Note: This market will resolve based on the most numerically precise version of the specified metric reported in the company's official earnings materials. Only the specified metric will be considered; alternate versions that differ in definition or scope from the specified metric will not be considered.TSMC’s Q2 2026 gross margin guidance of 65.5-67.5% at a 31.7 USD/NTD rate sets the baseline, yet Polymarket’s tightly clustered odds around 67-70% reflect trader bets on upside from elevated capacity utilization and productivity gains in advanced nodes. Q1’s 66.2% result beat expectations on stronger-than-anticipated loading and cost controls, with 3 nm and 7 nm processes driving 74% of wafer revenue. Offsetting factors include modest dilution from Arizona and other overseas fabs plus higher input costs amid geopolitical tensions. AI accelerator demand continues to support pricing power, but currency swings and the pace of 2 nm ramp preparations introduce the main variables that could shift the final print within or outside the guided range before July reporting.
This market will resolve according to Taiwan Semiconductor's gross profit margin for the upcoming second fiscal quarter, as reported in its official company earnings materials.
The specified metric will be considered as reported in the company's official earnings materials. Subsequent revisions will not be considered.
If the specified company's official earnings materials for the specified quarter are released, and the specified metric is not included, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
If the specified company does not release quarterly earnings materials for the specified quarter by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the specified metric is reported as a range rather than a specific number, the midpoint of the range will be used for resolution of this market.
The resolution source for this market is Taiwan Semiconductor's official company earnings materials, including press releases, investor presentations, and regulatory filings. If the specified metric is not reported in these materials, recordings or transcripts of the company's earnings webcast may also be used.
Note: This market will resolve based on the most numerically precise version of the specified metric reported in the company's official earnings materials. Only the specified metric will be considered; alternate versions that differ in definition or scope from the specified metric will not be considered.
The specified metric will be considered as reported in the company's official earnings materials. Subsequent revisions will not be considered.
If the specified company's official earnings materials for the specified quarter are released, and the specified metric is not included, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
If the specified company does not release quarterly earnings materials for the specified quarter by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the specified metric is reported as a range rather than a specific number, the midpoint of the range will be used for resolution of this market.
The resolution source for this market is Taiwan Semiconductor's official company earnings materials, including press releases, investor presentations, and regulatory filings. If the specified metric is not reported in these materials, recordings or transcripts of the company's earnings webcast may also be used.
Note: This market will resolve based on the most numerically precise version of the specified metric reported in the company's official earnings materials. Only the specified metric will be considered; alternate versions that differ in definition or scope from the specified metric will not be considered.
Pasar Dibuka: Jun 19, 2026, 12:05 PM ET
Volume
$265Tanggal Berakhir
Jul 16, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Jun 19, 2026, 12:05 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to Taiwan Semiconductor's gross profit margin for the upcoming second fiscal quarter, as reported in its official company earnings materials.
The specified metric will be considered as reported in the company's official earnings materials. Subsequent revisions will not be considered.
If the specified company's official earnings materials for the specified quarter are released, and the specified metric is not included, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
If the specified company does not release quarterly earnings materials for the specified quarter by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the specified metric is reported as a range rather than a specific number, the midpoint of the range will be used for resolution of this market.
The resolution source for this market is Taiwan Semiconductor's official company earnings materials, including press releases, investor presentations, and regulatory filings. If the specified metric is not reported in these materials, recordings or transcripts of the company's earnings webcast may also be used.
Note: This market will resolve based on the most numerically precise version of the specified metric reported in the company's official earnings materials. Only the specified metric will be considered; alternate versions that differ in definition or scope from the specified metric will not be considered.TSMC’s Q2 2026 gross margin guidance of 65.5-67.5% at a 31.7 USD/NTD rate sets the baseline, yet Polymarket’s tightly clustered odds around 67-70% reflect trader bets on upside from elevated capacity utilization and productivity gains in advanced nodes. Q1’s 66.2% result beat expectations on stronger-than-anticipated loading and cost controls, with 3 nm and 7 nm processes driving 74% of wafer revenue. Offsetting factors include modest dilution from Arizona and other overseas fabs plus higher input costs amid geopolitical tensions. AI accelerator demand continues to support pricing power, but currency swings and the pace of 2 nm ramp preparations introduce the main variables that could shift the final print within or outside the guided range before July reporting.
This market will resolve according to Taiwan Semiconductor's gross profit margin for the upcoming second fiscal quarter, as reported in its official company earnings materials.
The specified metric will be considered as reported in the company's official earnings materials. Subsequent revisions will not be considered.
If the specified company's official earnings materials for the specified quarter are released, and the specified metric is not included, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
If the specified company does not release quarterly earnings materials for the specified quarter by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the specified metric is reported as a range rather than a specific number, the midpoint of the range will be used for resolution of this market.
The resolution source for this market is Taiwan Semiconductor's official company earnings materials, including press releases, investor presentations, and regulatory filings. If the specified metric is not reported in these materials, recordings or transcripts of the company's earnings webcast may also be used.
Note: This market will resolve based on the most numerically precise version of the specified metric reported in the company's official earnings materials. Only the specified metric will be considered; alternate versions that differ in definition or scope from the specified metric will not be considered.
The specified metric will be considered as reported in the company's official earnings materials. Subsequent revisions will not be considered.
If the specified company's official earnings materials for the specified quarter are released, and the specified metric is not included, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
If the specified company does not release quarterly earnings materials for the specified quarter by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the specified metric is reported as a range rather than a specific number, the midpoint of the range will be used for resolution of this market.
The resolution source for this market is Taiwan Semiconductor's official company earnings materials, including press releases, investor presentations, and regulatory filings. If the specified metric is not reported in these materials, recordings or transcripts of the company's earnings webcast may also be used.
Note: This market will resolve based on the most numerically precise version of the specified metric reported in the company's official earnings materials. Only the specified metric will be considered; alternate versions that differ in definition or scope from the specified metric will not be considered.
Volume
$265Tanggal Berakhir
Jul 16, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Jun 19, 2026, 12:05 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...TSMC’s Q2 2026 gross margin guidance of 65.5-67.5% at a 31.7 USD/NTD rate sets the baseline, yet Polymarket’s tightly clustered odds around 67-70% reflect trader bets on upside from elevated capacity utilization and productivity gains in advanced nodes. Q1’s 66.2% result beat expectations on stronger-than-anticipated loading and cost controls, with 3 nm and 7 nm processes driving 74% of wafer revenue. Offsetting factors include modest dilution from Arizona and other overseas fabs plus higher input costs amid geopolitical tensions. AI accelerator demand continues to support pricing power, but currency swings and the pace of 2 nm ramp preparations introduce the main variables that could shift the final print within or outside the guided range before July reporting.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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