Henry Cuellar secured the TX-28 seat on November 3 with 65.8% of the vote against Republican Tano Tijerina's 29.6% and a minor third-party share, producing a margin well above 21 points based on counts exceeding 172,000 ballots. Mid-decade redistricting incorporated more Trump-leaning territory, yet the incumbent maintained a wide lead through established local support, superior fundraising, and resolution of prior federal charges via presidential pardon. With nearly all precincts reporting and results holding steady, the market's 98% pricing on a Democrat margin exceeding 21 points aligns with the confirmed outcome. Remaining uncounted mail, military, and provisional ballots or any canvass adjustments would need to exceed historical norms by an extreme degree to alter the result.