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Ekonomi·CPI

US economic state at the end of 2026?

icon for US economic state at the end of 2026?
Ekonomi·CPI

US economic state at the end of 2026?

Soft Landing (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation <3.5%) 62%

Overheating (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%) 36%

Stagflation (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%) 4.7%

Slack (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation <3.5%) <1%

Polymarket

$70,976 Vol.

Soft Landing (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation <3.5%) 62%

Overheating (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%) 36%

Stagflation (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%) 4.7%

Slack (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation <3.5%) <1%

Polymarket

$70,976 Vol.

Soft Landing (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)

$32,979 Vol.

62%

Overheating (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)

$24,555 Vol.

36%

Stagflation (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)

$10,844 Vol.

5%

Slack (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)

$2,598 Vol.

<1%

The unemployment rate is defined as the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed as a percent of the civilian labor force, denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation release. The inflation rate is defined as the 12-month percent change in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U), before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Consumer Price Index release. This market will resolve according to the unemployment rate and the inflation rate published for December 2026. If either the December 2026 inflation rate or the December 2026 unemployment rate is not published by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the most recently published available value of the rate for a month prior to December 2026. This market will resolve to “Soft Landing (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is less than 5.0% and the inflation rate is less than 3.5%. This market will resolve to “Stagflation (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is greater than or equal to 5.0% and the inflation rate is greater than or equal to 3.5%. This market will resolve to “Overheating (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is less than 5.0% and the inflation rate is greater than or equal to 3.5%. This market will resolve to “Slack (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is greater than or equal to 5.0% and the inflation rate is less than 3.5%. The resolution source for this market will be the Bureau of Labor Statistics, specifically its Employment Situation and Consumer Price Index releases.**Recent US labor market data and inflation trends underpin trader positioning in the "US economic state at the end of 2026" market, where Soft Landing holds a 61.5% implied probability and Overheating 35.0%.** As of July 2026, the unemployment rate stands at 4.1%, near multi-year lows and well below the 5.0% threshold, while headline CPI inflation eased to 3.4% year-over-year (core at 2.5%). Weekly jobless claims remain low around 206,000, signaling limited layoffs despite softer payroll gains. These readings reflect a resilient labor market supported by AI-driven investment and steady consumer spending, keeping stagflation and slack probabilities minimal at under 5% combined. Elevated energy prices from Middle East supply disruptions have kept headline inflation above the Fed’s 2% target, sustaining the 35% overheating share as traders weigh risks of persistent price pressures through year-end. The Fed’s policy rate remains at 3.50–3.75%, with most economists expecting it to stay on hold for the balance of 2026 amid balanced growth and contained labor slack. Upcoming CPI and employment releases will provide further signals on whether inflation moderates toward target or lingers, influencing shifts between the leading soft-landing and overheating scenarios.

The unemployment rate is defined as the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed as a percent of the civilian labor force, denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation release. The inflation rate is defined as the 12-month percent change in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U), before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Consumer Price Index release.

This market will resolve according to the unemployment rate and the inflation rate published for December 2026.

If either the December 2026 inflation rate or the December 2026 unemployment rate is not published by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the most recently published available value of the rate for a month prior to December 2026.

This market will resolve to “Soft Landing (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is less than 5.0% and the inflation rate is less than 3.5%.

This market will resolve to “Stagflation (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is greater than or equal to 5.0% and the inflation rate is greater than or equal to 3.5%.

This market will resolve to “Overheating (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is less than 5.0% and the inflation rate is greater than or equal to 3.5%.

This market will resolve to “Slack (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is greater than or equal to 5.0% and the inflation rate is less than 3.5%.

The resolution source for this market will be the Bureau of Labor Statistics, specifically its Employment Situation and Consumer Price Index releases.
Volume
$70,976
Tanggal Berakhir
Jan 31, 2027
Pasar Dibuka
Apr 24, 2026, 5:47 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
The unemployment rate is defined as the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed as a percent of the civilian labor force, denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation release. The inflation rate is defined as the 12-month percent change in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U), before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Consumer Price Index release. This market will resolve according to the unemployment rate and the inflation rate published for December 2026. If either the December 2026 inflation rate or the December 2026 unemployment rate is not published by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the most recently published available value of the rate for a month prior to December 2026. This market will resolve to “Soft Landing (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is less than 5.0% and the inflation rate is less than 3.5%. This market will resolve to “Stagflation (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is greater than or equal to 5.0% and the inflation rate is greater than or equal to 3.5%. This market will resolve to “Overheating (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is less than 5.0% and the inflation rate is greater than or equal to 3.5%. This market will resolve to “Slack (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is greater than or equal to 5.0% and the inflation rate is less than 3.5%. The resolution source for this market will be the Bureau of Labor Statistics, specifically its Employment Situation and Consumer Price Index releases.
The unemployment rate is defined as the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed as a percent of the civilian labor force, denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation release. The inflation rate is defined as the 12-month percent change in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U), before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Consumer Price Index release. This market will resolve according to the unemployment rate and the inflation rate published for December 2026. If either the December 2026 inflation rate or the December 2026 unemployment rate is not published by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the most recently published available value of the rate for a month prior to December 2026. This market will resolve to “Soft Landing (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is less than 5.0% and the inflation rate is less than 3.5%. This market will resolve to “Stagflation (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is greater than or equal to 5.0% and the inflation rate is greater than or equal to 3.5%. This market will resolve to “Overheating (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is less than 5.0% and the inflation rate is greater than or equal to 3.5%. This market will resolve to “Slack (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is greater than or equal to 5.0% and the inflation rate is less than 3.5%. The resolution source for this market will be the Bureau of Labor Statistics, specifically its Employment Situation and Consumer Price Index releases.**Recent US labor market data and inflation trends underpin trader positioning in the "US economic state at the end of 2026" market, where Soft Landing holds a 61.5% implied probability and Overheating 35.0%.** As of July 2026, the unemployment rate stands at 4.1%, near multi-year lows and well below the 5.0% threshold, while headline CPI inflation eased to 3.4% year-over-year (core at 2.5%). Weekly jobless claims remain low around 206,000, signaling limited layoffs despite softer payroll gains. These readings reflect a resilient labor market supported by AI-driven investment and steady consumer spending, keeping stagflation and slack probabilities minimal at under 5% combined. Elevated energy prices from Middle East supply disruptions have kept headline inflation above the Fed’s 2% target, sustaining the 35% overheating share as traders weigh risks of persistent price pressures through year-end. The Fed’s policy rate remains at 3.50–3.75%, with most economists expecting it to stay on hold for the balance of 2026 amid balanced growth and contained labor slack. Upcoming CPI and employment releases will provide further signals on whether inflation moderates toward target or lingers, influencing shifts between the leading soft-landing and overheating scenarios.

The unemployment rate is defined as the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed as a percent of the civilian labor force, denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation release. The inflation rate is defined as the 12-month percent change in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U), before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Consumer Price Index release.

This market will resolve according to the unemployment rate and the inflation rate published for December 2026.

If either the December 2026 inflation rate or the December 2026 unemployment rate is not published by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the most recently published available value of the rate for a month prior to December 2026.

This market will resolve to “Soft Landing (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is less than 5.0% and the inflation rate is less than 3.5%.

This market will resolve to “Stagflation (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is greater than or equal to 5.0% and the inflation rate is greater than or equal to 3.5%.

This market will resolve to “Overheating (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is less than 5.0% and the inflation rate is greater than or equal to 3.5%.

This market will resolve to “Slack (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is greater than or equal to 5.0% and the inflation rate is less than 3.5%.

The resolution source for this market will be the Bureau of Labor Statistics, specifically its Employment Situation and Consumer Price Index releases.
Volume
$70,976
Tanggal Berakhir
Jan 31, 2027
Pasar Dibuka
Apr 24, 2026, 5:47 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
The unemployment rate is defined as the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed as a percent of the civilian labor force, denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation release. The inflation rate is defined as the 12-month percent change in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U), before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Consumer Price Index release. This market will resolve according to the unemployment rate and the inflation rate published for December 2026. If either the December 2026 inflation rate or the December 2026 unemployment rate is not published by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the most recently published available value of the rate for a month prior to December 2026. This market will resolve to “Soft Landing (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is less than 5.0% and the inflation rate is less than 3.5%. This market will resolve to “Stagflation (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is greater than or equal to 5.0% and the inflation rate is greater than or equal to 3.5%. This market will resolve to “Overheating (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is less than 5.0% and the inflation rate is greater than or equal to 3.5%. This market will resolve to “Slack (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is greater than or equal to 5.0% and the inflation rate is less than 3.5%. The resolution source for this market will be the Bureau of Labor Statistics, specifically its Employment Situation and Consumer Price Index releases.

Terkait

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icon for Will inflation reach more than 4.5% in 2026?

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Pertanyaan yang Sering Diajukan

"US economic state at the end of 2026?" adalah pasar prediksi di Polymarket dengan 4 hasil yang mungkin di mana trader membeli dan menjual saham berdasarkan apa yang mereka yakini akan terjadi. Hasil terdepan saat ini adalah "Soft Landing (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)" di 62%, diikuti oleh "Overheating (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)" di 36%. Harga mencerminkan probabilitas crowd-sourced real-time. Misalnya, saham yang dihargai 62¢ menyiratkan bahwa pasar secara kolektif memberikan peluang 62% pada hasil tersebut. Peluang ini bergeser terus-menerus saat trader bereaksi terhadap perkembangan dan informasi baru. Saham dengan hasil yang benar bisa ditukarkan seharga $1 setiap saham saat pasar diselesaikan.

Per hari ini, "US economic state at the end of 2026?" telah menghasilkan $71K dalam total volume trading sejak pasar diluncurkan pada Apr 24, 2026. Tingkat aktivitas trading ini mencerminkan keterlibatan kuat dari komunitas Polymarket dan membantu memastikan bahwa peluang saat ini diinformasikan oleh kumpulan besar peserta pasar. Kamu bisa melacak pergerakan harga langsung dan trading di hasil apa pun langsung di halaman ini.

Untuk trading di "US economic state at the end of 2026?," jelajahi 4 hasil yang tersedia di halaman ini. Setiap hasil menampilkan harga saat ini yang mewakili probabilitas tersirat pasar. Untuk mengambil posisi, pilih hasil yang menurutmu paling mungkin, pilih "Ya" untuk mendukungnya atau "Tidak" untuk menentangnya, masukkan jumlahmu, dan klik "Trade." Jika hasil pilihanmu benar saat pasar diselesaikan, saham "Ya" kamu membayar $1 masing-masing. Jika salah, mereka membayar $0. Kamu juga bisa menjual sahammu kapan saja sebelum resolusi jika kamu ingin mengamankan keuntungan atau memotong kerugian.

Unggulan saat ini untuk "US economic state at the end of 2026?" adalah "Soft Landing (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)" di 62%, yang berarti pasar memberikan peluang 62% pada hasil tersebut. Hasil terdekat berikutnya adalah "Overheating (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)" di 36%. Peluang ini diperbarui secara real-time saat trader membeli dan menjual saham, sehingga mencerminkan pandangan kolektif terbaru tentang apa yang paling mungkin terjadi. Cek kembali secara rutin atau tandai halaman ini untuk mengikuti bagaimana peluang bergeser saat informasi baru muncul.

Aturan resolusi untuk "US economic state at the end of 2026?" mendefinisikan dengan tepat apa yang harus terjadi agar setiap hasil dinyatakan sebagai pemenang — termasuk sumber data resmi yang digunakan untuk menentukan hasilnya. Kamu bisa meninjau kriteria resolusi lengkap di bagian "Aturan" di halaman ini di atas komentar. Kami menyarankan membaca aturan dengan cermat sebelum trading, karena mereka menentukan kondisi tepat, kasus khusus, dan sumber yang mengatur bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan.