Recent releases from OpenAI’s GPT-5.6 series, including Sol at 83% on FrontierMath v2 Tier 4, and Anthropic’s Claude Opus 5/Fable 5 variants topping USAMO 2026 at 97%+, have lifted trader expectations for rapid gains on MathArena’s uncontaminated competitions. These models demonstrate strong final-answer accuracy on AIME-style problems (often 94-99%) while proof-based tracks like ArXivMath and Apex remain far harder, with leading scores around 80% and under 6%, respectively. Competitive pressure from Moonshot’s Kimi K2.6/K3, Z.ai’s GLM-5.1, and Google’s Gemini 3 variants continues to compress timelines, though saturation on easier math benchmarks makes further jumps dependent on new reasoning techniques and agent scaffolding. Key catalysts through year-end include potential GPT-5.7 or Claude Opus 6 launches, fresh IMO/USAMO-style contests, and any regulatory or compute-related constraints on frontier training runs. Market-implied odds reflect this steady but uneven progress.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui$115,019 Vol.
Dec 30, 2026
1575
73%
1600
28%
$115,019 Vol.
1575
$34,350 Vol.
73%
1600
$12,063 Vol.
28%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model on the Arena.AI Leaderboard (arena.ai/leaderboard/text) reaches at least the specified Arena Score on the "Leaderboard" tab for "Math" by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at arena.ai/leaderboard/text. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".Recent releases from OpenAI’s GPT-5.6 series, including Sol at 83% on FrontierMath v2 Tier 4, and Anthropic’s Claude Opus 5/Fable 5 variants topping USAMO 2026 at 97%+, have lifted trader expectations for rapid gains on MathArena’s uncontaminated competitions. These models demonstrate strong final-answer accuracy on AIME-style problems (often 94-99%) while proof-based tracks like ArXivMath and Apex remain far harder, with leading scores around 80% and under 6%, respectively. Competitive pressure from Moonshot’s Kimi K2.6/K3, Z.ai’s GLM-5.1, and Google’s Gemini 3 variants continues to compress timelines, though saturation on easier math benchmarks makes further jumps dependent on new reasoning techniques and agent scaffolding. Key catalysts through year-end include potential GPT-5.7 or Claude Opus 6 launches, fresh IMO/USAMO-style contests, and any regulatory or compute-related constraints on frontier training runs. Market-implied odds reflect this steady but uneven progress.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model on the Arena.AI Leaderboard (arena.ai/leaderboard/text) reaches at least the specified Arena Score on the "Leaderboard" tab for "Math" by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at arena.ai/leaderboard/text. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".
Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at arena.ai/leaderboard/text. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".
Pasar Dibuka: Apr 2, 2026, 6:07 PM ET
Volume
$115,019Tanggal Berakhir
Dec 31, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Apr 2, 2026, 6:07 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model on the Arena.AI Leaderboard (arena.ai/leaderboard/text) reaches at least the specified Arena Score on the "Leaderboard" tab for "Math" by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at arena.ai/leaderboard/text. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".Recent releases from OpenAI’s GPT-5.6 series, including Sol at 83% on FrontierMath v2 Tier 4, and Anthropic’s Claude Opus 5/Fable 5 variants topping USAMO 2026 at 97%+, have lifted trader expectations for rapid gains on MathArena’s uncontaminated competitions. These models demonstrate strong final-answer accuracy on AIME-style problems (often 94-99%) while proof-based tracks like ArXivMath and Apex remain far harder, with leading scores around 80% and under 6%, respectively. Competitive pressure from Moonshot’s Kimi K2.6/K3, Z.ai’s GLM-5.1, and Google’s Gemini 3 variants continues to compress timelines, though saturation on easier math benchmarks makes further jumps dependent on new reasoning techniques and agent scaffolding. Key catalysts through year-end include potential GPT-5.7 or Claude Opus 6 launches, fresh IMO/USAMO-style contests, and any regulatory or compute-related constraints on frontier training runs. Market-implied odds reflect this steady but uneven progress.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model on the Arena.AI Leaderboard (arena.ai/leaderboard/text) reaches at least the specified Arena Score on the "Leaderboard" tab for "Math" by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at arena.ai/leaderboard/text. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".
Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at arena.ai/leaderboard/text. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".
Volume
$115,019Tanggal Berakhir
Dec 31, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Apr 2, 2026, 6:07 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent releases from OpenAI’s GPT-5.6 series, including Sol at 83% on FrontierMath v2 Tier 4, and Anthropic’s Claude Opus 5/Fable 5 variants topping USAMO 2026 at 97%+, have lifted trader expectations for rapid gains on MathArena’s uncontaminated competitions. These models demonstrate strong final-answer accuracy on AIME-style problems (often 94-99%) while proof-based tracks like ArXivMath and Apex remain far harder, with leading scores around 80% and under 6%, respectively. Competitive pressure from Moonshot’s Kimi K2.6/K3, Z.ai’s GLM-5.1, and Google’s Gemini 3 variants continues to compress timelines, though saturation on easier math benchmarks makes further jumps dependent on new reasoning techniques and agent scaffolding. Key catalysts through year-end include potential GPT-5.7 or Claude Opus 6 launches, fresh IMO/USAMO-style contests, and any regulatory or compute-related constraints on frontier training runs. Market-implied odds reflect this steady but uneven progress.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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