Apple’s established pattern of annual flagship smartphone releases, combined with consistent supply chain reports and recent analyst consensus, underpins the 98.6% market-implied odds for an iPhone 18 launch in 2026. Multiple credible sources indicate the iPhone 18 Pro, Pro Max, and first foldable model (often called Ultra) are slated for a September 2026 keynote and availability, aligning with Apple’s typical fall cadence and the A20 chip timeline. While the base iPhone 18 may shift to early 2027, the premium variants still satisfy the release threshold. Low-probability risks include severe component shortages, regulatory hurdles on new hardware features, or unforeseen manufacturing delays with the foldable design, any of which could push the entire lineup later.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui99% peluang
$173,240 Vol.
$173,240 Vol.
Dec 30, 2026
99% peluang
$173,240 Vol.
$173,240 Vol.
Dec 30, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases iPhone 18 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Apple’s established pattern of annual flagship smartphone releases, combined with consistent supply chain reports and recent analyst consensus, underpins the 98.6% market-implied odds for an iPhone 18 launch in 2026. Multiple credible sources indicate the iPhone 18 Pro, Pro Max, and first foldable model (often called Ultra) are slated for a September 2026 keynote and availability, aligning with Apple’s typical fall cadence and the A20 chip timeline. While the base iPhone 18 may shift to early 2027, the premium variants still satisfy the release threshold. Low-probability risks include severe component shortages, regulatory hurdles on new hardware features, or unforeseen manufacturing delays with the foldable design, any of which could push the entire lineup later.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases iPhone 18 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Pasar Dibuka: Dec 12, 2025, 5:53 PM ET
Volume
$173,240Tanggal Berakhir
Dec 31, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Dec 12, 2025, 5:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases iPhone 18 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Apple’s established pattern of annual flagship smartphone releases, combined with consistent supply chain reports and recent analyst consensus, underpins the 98.6% market-implied odds for an iPhone 18 launch in 2026. Multiple credible sources indicate the iPhone 18 Pro, Pro Max, and first foldable model (often called Ultra) are slated for a September 2026 keynote and availability, aligning with Apple’s typical fall cadence and the A20 chip timeline. While the base iPhone 18 may shift to early 2027, the premium variants still satisfy the release threshold. Low-probability risks include severe component shortages, regulatory hurdles on new hardware features, or unforeseen manufacturing delays with the foldable design, any of which could push the entire lineup later.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases iPhone 18 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$173,240Tanggal Berakhir
Dec 31, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Dec 12, 2025, 5:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Apple’s established pattern of annual flagship smartphone releases, combined with consistent supply chain reports and recent analyst consensus, underpins the 98.6% market-implied odds for an iPhone 18 launch in 2026. Multiple credible sources indicate the iPhone 18 Pro, Pro Max, and first foldable model (often called Ultra) are slated for a September 2026 keynote and availability, aligning with Apple’s typical fall cadence and the A20 chip timeline. While the base iPhone 18 may shift to early 2027, the premium variants still satisfy the release threshold. Low-probability risks include severe component shortages, regulatory hurdles on new hardware features, or unforeseen manufacturing delays with the foldable design, any of which could push the entire lineup later.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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