Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects an 83.5% implied probability for "No" as Tesla has provided no official updates on Robovan orders since its October 2024 unveiling at the We, Robot event, prioritizing Cybercab robotaxi volume production ramp-up initiated in April 2026 and Full Self-Driving (FSD) Supervised milestones like zero-intervention coast-to-coast drives. Resource allocation toward unsupervised FSD validation (V15 imminent), robotaxi network expansion in Texas and beyond, and Optimus scaling underscores Robovan's lower priority for this larger autonomous vehicle designed for 20-passenger high-occupancy transport. Historical product delays and pending regulatory approvals for driverless operations further solidify skepticism, with Q2 earnings and FSD regulatory progress as key near-term catalysts that could shift sentiment if Robovan timelines surface.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui$31,485 Vol.
$31,485 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
$31,485 Vol.
$31,485 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Tesla publicly opens either preorders or full customer orders for any van-like autonomous electric vehicle on or before December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any such vehicle, regardless of product name, will qualify as long as either preorders or full customer orders are publicly open in at least one region.
Free signup or waitlist systems that do not constitute a public preorder or full customer order will not qualify.
The qualifying vehicle must represent a distinct product line; larger or modified variants of other Tesla models, such as robotaxi configurations with expanded seating, will not count.
Announcements that either preorders or full customer orders will open in the future do not qualify on their own; the preordering or ordering window must actually open within this market's timeframe to count.
This market's resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects an 83.5% implied probability for "No" as Tesla has provided no official updates on Robovan orders since its October 2024 unveiling at the We, Robot event, prioritizing Cybercab robotaxi volume production ramp-up initiated in April 2026 and Full Self-Driving (FSD) Supervised milestones like zero-intervention coast-to-coast drives. Resource allocation toward unsupervised FSD validation (V15 imminent), robotaxi network expansion in Texas and beyond, and Optimus scaling underscores Robovan's lower priority for this larger autonomous vehicle designed for 20-passenger high-occupancy transport. Historical product delays and pending regulatory approvals for driverless operations further solidify skepticism, with Q2 earnings and FSD regulatory progress as key near-term catalysts that could shift sentiment if Robovan timelines surface.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Tesla publicly opens either preorders or full customer orders for any van-like autonomous electric vehicle on or before December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any such vehicle, regardless of product name, will qualify as long as either preorders or full customer orders are publicly open in at least one region.
Free signup or waitlist systems that do not constitute a public preorder or full customer order will not qualify.
The qualifying vehicle must represent a distinct product line; larger or modified variants of other Tesla models, such as robotaxi configurations with expanded seating, will not count.
Announcements that either preorders or full customer orders will open in the future do not qualify on their own; the preordering or ordering window must actually open within this market's timeframe to count.
This market's resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Any such vehicle, regardless of product name, will qualify as long as either preorders or full customer orders are publicly open in at least one region.
Free signup or waitlist systems that do not constitute a public preorder or full customer order will not qualify.
The qualifying vehicle must represent a distinct product line; larger or modified variants of other Tesla models, such as robotaxi configurations with expanded seating, will not count.
Announcements that either preorders or full customer orders will open in the future do not qualify on their own; the preordering or ordering window must actually open within this market's timeframe to count.
This market's resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Pasar Dibuka: Dec 3, 2025, 6:50 PM ET
Volume
$31,485Tanggal Berakhir
Dec 31, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Dec 3, 2025, 6:50 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Tesla publicly opens either preorders or full customer orders for any van-like autonomous electric vehicle on or before December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any such vehicle, regardless of product name, will qualify as long as either preorders or full customer orders are publicly open in at least one region.
Free signup or waitlist systems that do not constitute a public preorder or full customer order will not qualify.
The qualifying vehicle must represent a distinct product line; larger or modified variants of other Tesla models, such as robotaxi configurations with expanded seating, will not count.
Announcements that either preorders or full customer orders will open in the future do not qualify on their own; the preordering or ordering window must actually open within this market's timeframe to count.
This market's resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects an 83.5% implied probability for "No" as Tesla has provided no official updates on Robovan orders since its October 2024 unveiling at the We, Robot event, prioritizing Cybercab robotaxi volume production ramp-up initiated in April 2026 and Full Self-Driving (FSD) Supervised milestones like zero-intervention coast-to-coast drives. Resource allocation toward unsupervised FSD validation (V15 imminent), robotaxi network expansion in Texas and beyond, and Optimus scaling underscores Robovan's lower priority for this larger autonomous vehicle designed for 20-passenger high-occupancy transport. Historical product delays and pending regulatory approvals for driverless operations further solidify skepticism, with Q2 earnings and FSD regulatory progress as key near-term catalysts that could shift sentiment if Robovan timelines surface.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Tesla publicly opens either preorders or full customer orders for any van-like autonomous electric vehicle on or before December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any such vehicle, regardless of product name, will qualify as long as either preorders or full customer orders are publicly open in at least one region.
Free signup or waitlist systems that do not constitute a public preorder or full customer order will not qualify.
The qualifying vehicle must represent a distinct product line; larger or modified variants of other Tesla models, such as robotaxi configurations with expanded seating, will not count.
Announcements that either preorders or full customer orders will open in the future do not qualify on their own; the preordering or ordering window must actually open within this market's timeframe to count.
This market's resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Any such vehicle, regardless of product name, will qualify as long as either preorders or full customer orders are publicly open in at least one region.
Free signup or waitlist systems that do not constitute a public preorder or full customer order will not qualify.
The qualifying vehicle must represent a distinct product line; larger or modified variants of other Tesla models, such as robotaxi configurations with expanded seating, will not count.
Announcements that either preorders or full customer orders will open in the future do not qualify on their own; the preordering or ordering window must actually open within this market's timeframe to count.
This market's resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$31,485Tanggal Berakhir
Dec 31, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Dec 3, 2025, 6:50 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects an 83.5% implied probability for "No" as Tesla has provided no official updates on Robovan orders since its October 2024 unveiling at the We, Robot event, prioritizing Cybercab robotaxi volume production ramp-up initiated in April 2026 and Full Self-Driving (FSD) Supervised milestones like zero-intervention coast-to-coast drives. Resource allocation toward unsupervised FSD validation (V15 imminent), robotaxi network expansion in Texas and beyond, and Optimus scaling underscores Robovan's lower priority for this larger autonomous vehicle designed for 20-passenger high-occupancy transport. Historical product delays and pending regulatory approvals for driverless operations further solidify skepticism, with Q2 earnings and FSD regulatory progress as key near-term catalysts that could shift sentiment if Robovan timelines surface.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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