Persistent monthly inflation near 2.9% and revised analyst forecasts placing 2026 CPI at 30–33% continue to anchor trader expectations for ongoing nominal peso depreciation under the central bank’s crawling-peg regime. With the spot official rate near 1,400 ARS per USD, the market-implied 35.5% probability on a year-end print below 1,600 reflects the baseline path of gradual adjustment needed to narrow the official-parallel gap while the BCRA rebuilds reserves ahead of roughly $20 billion in 2026 maturities. Recent Fitch upgrade to B- and firmer fiscal balances have capped tail-risk pricing above 2,000, yet sticky price pressures and the need to maintain competitiveness keep the 1,600–1,699 bracket as the next most favored outcome at 18.0%.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato$18,323 Vol.
$18,323 Vol.
<1600,00
36%
1600,00–1699,99
18%
1700,00–1799,99
11%
1800,00–1899,99
4%
1900,00–1999,99
2%
2000,00+
7%
$18,323 Vol.
$18,323 Vol.
<1600,00
36%
1600,00–1699,99
18%
1700,00–1799,99
11%
1800,00–1899,99
4%
1900,00–1999,99
2%
2000,00+
7%
This market will resolve according to the official wholesale USD to ARS exchange rate (Tipo de Cambio Mayorista, ($ por USD) Com. A 3500 | Referencia) at market close on the final business day of December 2026, as published by the BCRA on its official website (https://www.bcra.gob.ar/).
If the official rate for that date has not been published by the end of the 7th day after the end of the specified month, the market will resolve according to the most recently published official wholesale rate preceding that date.
The resolution source for this market will be the official BCRA publication. Resolution will occur once this figure is available.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA), which reports the Wholesale Exchange Rate to two decimal points (e.g., 1,408.02 ARS per USD). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Mercato aperto: Jan 26, 2026, 4:48 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the official wholesale USD to ARS exchange rate (Tipo de Cambio Mayorista, ($ por USD) Com. A 3500 | Referencia) at market close on the final business day of December 2026, as published by the BCRA on its official website (https://www.bcra.gob.ar/).
If the official rate for that date has not been published by the end of the 7th day after the end of the specified month, the market will resolve according to the most recently published official wholesale rate preceding that date.
The resolution source for this market will be the official BCRA publication. Resolution will occur once this figure is available.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA), which reports the Wholesale Exchange Rate to two decimal points (e.g., 1,408.02 ARS per USD). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Persistent monthly inflation near 2.9% and revised analyst forecasts placing 2026 CPI at 30–33% continue to anchor trader expectations for ongoing nominal peso depreciation under the central bank’s crawling-peg regime. With the spot official rate near 1,400 ARS per USD, the market-implied 35.5% probability on a year-end print below 1,600 reflects the baseline path of gradual adjustment needed to narrow the official-parallel gap while the BCRA rebuilds reserves ahead of roughly $20 billion in 2026 maturities. Recent Fitch upgrade to B- and firmer fiscal balances have capped tail-risk pricing above 2,000, yet sticky price pressures and the need to maintain competitiveness keep the 1,600–1,699 bracket as the next most favored outcome at 18.0%.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
Fai attenzione ai link esterni.
Fai attenzione ai link esterni.
Domande frequenti