Recent hawkish signals from Bank of Korea officials, including Deputy Governor Ryoo Sang-dai’s early-May remarks that growth is unlikely to fall much below 2.0 percent while inflation is tracking above the prior 2.2 percent forecast, have driven the 54.0 percent market-implied probability of no change and 42.5 percent odds of an increase at the July 2026 policy meeting. After seven consecutive holds at the 2.50 percent base rate, traders are pricing in a data-dependent shift away from further easing amid rising oil-driven price pressures and resilient semiconductor exports that support activity. The May 28 meeting is now viewed as the next potential inflection point for forward guidance, with inflation remaining the dominant swing factor over growth risks.