Redistricting under California's new map has consolidated the Sacramento-area CA-06 district with a pronounced Democratic tilt, reflected in forecaster ratings of Solid D or Safe D and a recent poll showing Democrat Richard Pan ahead of independent incumbent Kevin Kiley. Kiley, who switched from the Republican Party while continuing to caucus with House Republicans, advanced from the June 2026 top-two primary alongside Pan after multiple Democrats split the vote. Traders assign the Democratic Party a 94% implied probability of winning the November general election, consistent with the district's partisan composition and limited pathways for a Republican-aligned candidate. Potential shifts could arise from national political swings, major candidate-specific developments, or unusually high turnout patterns before the November 3 resolution date.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoCA-06 House Election Winner
CA-06 House Election Winner
$42,196 Vol.
$42,196 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Democratic Party
94%
Republican Party
4%
$42,196 Vol.
$42,196 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Democratic Party
$18,233 Vol.
94%
Republican Party
$23,963 Vol.
4%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Redistricting under California's new map has consolidated the Sacramento-area CA-06 district with a pronounced Democratic tilt, reflected in forecaster ratings of Solid D or Safe D and a recent poll showing Democrat Richard Pan ahead of independent incumbent Kevin Kiley. Kiley, who switched from the Republican Party while continuing to caucus with House Republicans, advanced from the June 2026 top-two primary alongside Pan after multiple Democrats split the vote. Traders assign the Democratic Party a 94% implied probability of winning the November general election, consistent with the district's partisan composition and limited pathways for a Republican-aligned candidate. Potential shifts could arise from national political swings, major candidate-specific developments, or unusually high turnout patterns before the November 3 resolution date.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Mercato aperto: Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ET
Volume
$42,196Data di fine
3 nov 2026Mercato aperto
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Redistricting under California's new map has consolidated the Sacramento-area CA-06 district with a pronounced Democratic tilt, reflected in forecaster ratings of Solid D or Safe D and a recent poll showing Democrat Richard Pan ahead of independent incumbent Kevin Kiley. Kiley, who switched from the Republican Party while continuing to caucus with House Republicans, advanced from the June 2026 top-two primary alongside Pan after multiple Democrats split the vote. Traders assign the Democratic Party a 94% implied probability of winning the November general election, consistent with the district's partisan composition and limited pathways for a Republican-aligned candidate. Potential shifts could arise from national political swings, major candidate-specific developments, or unusually high turnout patterns before the November 3 resolution date.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$42,196Data di fine
3 nov 2026Mercato aperto
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Redistricting under California's new map has consolidated the Sacramento-area CA-06 district with a pronounced Democratic tilt, reflected in forecaster ratings of Solid D or Safe D and a recent poll showing Democrat Richard Pan ahead of independent incumbent Kevin Kiley. Kiley, who switched from the Republican Party while continuing to caucus with House Republicans, advanced from the June 2026 top-two primary alongside Pan after multiple Democrats split the vote. Traders assign the Democratic Party a 94% implied probability of winning the November general election, consistent with the district's partisan composition and limited pathways for a Republican-aligned candidate. Potential shifts could arise from national political swings, major candidate-specific developments, or unusually high turnout patterns before the November 3 resolution date.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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