**Confluent’s pending acquisition by IBM, announced in December 2025 and completed in early 2026, is the dominant factor behind the 96.5% market-implied probability that the company will not beat quarterly earnings.** The merger agreement eliminated standalone financial guidance and earnings conference calls after the Q4 2025 report, with the company operating as an independent entity only until the deal closed. Subsequent fiscal periods lack independent reporting requirements or consensus estimates against which outperformance could be measured. Analyst models show improving non-GAAP EPS trends through 2025, yet the structural change in corporate status overrides historical beat rates. Tail-risk scenarios remain limited to an unlikely regulatory reversal or delayed close that restores standalone reporting, though current regulatory approvals make such outcomes remote.