China's official 2026 GDP growth target of 4.5-5.0%, announced at the March Two Sessions, drives trader consensus toward 75.5% odds on 4.0-5.0%, aligning with IMF (4.4%), Goldman Sachs (4.8%), and UBS (4.5%) forecasts. Q1 GDP expanded 5.0% year-on-year in mid-April, beating 4.8% expectations via strong exports, industrial output, and fixed-asset investment, despite softening retail sales. Ongoing property sector slump—primary sales forecast to drop 10-14%—caps upside potential, reflected in 19.1% for 5.0-6.0%, while Iran conflict risks and trade frictions weigh on higher bands. Q2 data and fiscal stimulus scope loom as key catalysts.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato4,0–5,0% 76%
5,0–6,0% 19.9%
6,0-7,0% 2.2%
3,0–4,0% 2.1%
$515,552 Vol.
$515,552 Vol.
31 gen 2026
<1,0%
<1%
1,0–2,0%
<1%
2,0–3,0%
<1%
3,0–4,0%
2%
4,0–5,0%
76%
5,0–6,0%
20%
6,0-7,0%
2%
7,0–8,0%
<1%
8,0–9,0%
<1%
9,0%+
<1%
4,0–5,0% 76%
5,0–6,0% 19.9%
6,0-7,0% 2.2%
3,0–4,0% 2.1%
$515,552 Vol.
$515,552 Vol.
31 gen 2026
<1,0%
$41,191 Vol.
<1%
1,0–2,0%
$40,127 Vol.
<1%
2,0–3,0%
$20,784 Vol.
<1%
3,0–4,0%
$42,806 Vol.
2%
4,0–5,0%
$130,133 Vol.
76%
5,0–6,0%
$47,904 Vol.
20%
6,0-7,0%
$45,827 Vol.
2%
7,0–8,0%
$43,992 Vol.
<1%
8,0–9,0%
$19,714 Vol.
<1%
9,0%+
$83,075 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the full year of 2026, as reported in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for the fourth quarter and full year of 2026, scheduled for some time in January, 2027.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.China's official 2026 GDP growth target of 4.5-5.0%, announced at the March Two Sessions, drives trader consensus toward 75.5% odds on 4.0-5.0%, aligning with IMF (4.4%), Goldman Sachs (4.8%), and UBS (4.5%) forecasts. Q1 GDP expanded 5.0% year-on-year in mid-April, beating 4.8% expectations via strong exports, industrial output, and fixed-asset investment, despite softening retail sales. Ongoing property sector slump—primary sales forecast to drop 10-14%—caps upside potential, reflected in 19.1% for 5.0-6.0%, while Iran conflict risks and trade frictions weigh on higher bands. Q2 data and fiscal stimulus scope loom as key catalysts.
This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the full year of 2026, as reported in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for the fourth quarter and full year of 2026, scheduled for some time in January, 2027.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercato aperto: Jan 21, 2026, 6:18 PM ET
Volume
$515,552Data di fine
31 gen 2026Mercato aperto
Jan 21, 2026, 6:18 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the full year of 2026, as reported in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for the fourth quarter and full year of 2026, scheduled for some time in January, 2027.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.China's official 2026 GDP growth target of 4.5-5.0%, announced at the March Two Sessions, drives trader consensus toward 75.5% odds on 4.0-5.0%, aligning with IMF (4.4%), Goldman Sachs (4.8%), and UBS (4.5%) forecasts. Q1 GDP expanded 5.0% year-on-year in mid-April, beating 4.8% expectations via strong exports, industrial output, and fixed-asset investment, despite softening retail sales. Ongoing property sector slump—primary sales forecast to drop 10-14%—caps upside potential, reflected in 19.1% for 5.0-6.0%, while Iran conflict risks and trade frictions weigh on higher bands. Q2 data and fiscal stimulus scope loom as key catalysts.
This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the full year of 2026, as reported in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for the fourth quarter and full year of 2026, scheduled for some time in January, 2027.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$515,552Data di fine
31 gen 2026Mercato aperto
Jan 21, 2026, 6:18 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...China's official 2026 GDP growth target of 4.5-5.0%, announced at the March Two Sessions, drives trader consensus toward 75.5% odds on 4.0-5.0%, aligning with IMF (4.4%), Goldman Sachs (4.8%), and UBS (4.5%) forecasts. Q1 GDP expanded 5.0% year-on-year in mid-April, beating 4.8% expectations via strong exports, industrial output, and fixed-asset investment, despite softening retail sales. Ongoing property sector slump—primary sales forecast to drop 10-14%—caps upside potential, reflected in 19.1% for 5.0-6.0%, while Iran conflict risks and trade frictions weigh on higher bands. Q2 data and fiscal stimulus scope loom as key catalysts.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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