China's official 2026 GDP growth target of 4.5–5.0 percent, set during the March Two Sessions, anchors trader expectations around the 4.0–5.0 percent band. Q1 data showed 5.0 percent expansion driven by industrial output and exports, but Q2 readings moderated to roughly 4.3–4.7 percent amid persistent weakness in consumption and the property sector. Forecasters from the IMF, OECD, ADB, and major banks project full-year outcomes of 4.4–4.6 percent, citing resilient manufacturing and high-tech exports offsetting subdued domestic demand. Policy measures under the new Five-Year Plan emphasize advanced manufacturing and fiscal support, while limited spillover from external energy pressures has helped stabilize near-term momentum. These developments explain the heavy concentration of market-implied probability in the 4.0–5.0 percent range.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato4,0–5,0% 89%
5,0–6,0% 10.7%
3,0–4,0% 1.1%
8,0–9,0% 1.1%
$875,379 Vol.
$875,379 Vol.
31 gen 2026
<1,0%
<1%
1,0–2,0%
<1%
2,0–3,0%
<1%
3,0–4,0%
1%
4,0–5,0%
89%
5,0–6,0%
11%
6,0-7,0%
<1%
7,0–8,0%
<1%
8,0–9,0%
1%
9,0%+
<1%
4,0–5,0% 89%
5,0–6,0% 10.7%
3,0–4,0% 1.1%
8,0–9,0% 1.1%
$875,379 Vol.
$875,379 Vol.
31 gen 2026
<1,0%
$64,833 Vol.
<1%
1,0–2,0%
$74,124 Vol.
<1%
2,0–3,0%
$44,776 Vol.
<1%
3,0–4,0%
$80,220 Vol.
1%
4,0–5,0%
$219,722 Vol.
89%
5,0–6,0%
$78,494 Vol.
11%
6,0-7,0%
$82,124 Vol.
<1%
7,0–8,0%
$62,549 Vol.
<1%
8,0–9,0%
$53,031 Vol.
1%
9,0%+
$115,508 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the full year of 2026, as reported in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for the fourth quarter and full year of 2026, scheduled for some time in January, 2027.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.China's official 2026 GDP growth target of 4.5–5.0 percent, set during the March Two Sessions, anchors trader expectations around the 4.0–5.0 percent band. Q1 data showed 5.0 percent expansion driven by industrial output and exports, but Q2 readings moderated to roughly 4.3–4.7 percent amid persistent weakness in consumption and the property sector. Forecasters from the IMF, OECD, ADB, and major banks project full-year outcomes of 4.4–4.6 percent, citing resilient manufacturing and high-tech exports offsetting subdued domestic demand. Policy measures under the new Five-Year Plan emphasize advanced manufacturing and fiscal support, while limited spillover from external energy pressures has helped stabilize near-term momentum. These developments explain the heavy concentration of market-implied probability in the 4.0–5.0 percent range.
This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the full year of 2026, as reported in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for the fourth quarter and full year of 2026, scheduled for some time in January, 2027.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercato aperto: Jan 21, 2026, 6:18 PM ET
Volume
$875,379Data di fine
31 gen 2026Mercato aperto
Jan 21, 2026, 6:18 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the full year of 2026, as reported in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for the fourth quarter and full year of 2026, scheduled for some time in January, 2027.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.China's official 2026 GDP growth target of 4.5–5.0 percent, set during the March Two Sessions, anchors trader expectations around the 4.0–5.0 percent band. Q1 data showed 5.0 percent expansion driven by industrial output and exports, but Q2 readings moderated to roughly 4.3–4.7 percent amid persistent weakness in consumption and the property sector. Forecasters from the IMF, OECD, ADB, and major banks project full-year outcomes of 4.4–4.6 percent, citing resilient manufacturing and high-tech exports offsetting subdued domestic demand. Policy measures under the new Five-Year Plan emphasize advanced manufacturing and fiscal support, while limited spillover from external energy pressures has helped stabilize near-term momentum. These developments explain the heavy concentration of market-implied probability in the 4.0–5.0 percent range.
This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the full year of 2026, as reported in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for the fourth quarter and full year of 2026, scheduled for some time in January, 2027.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$875,379Data di fine
31 gen 2026Mercato aperto
Jan 21, 2026, 6:18 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...China's official 2026 GDP growth target of 4.5–5.0 percent, set during the March Two Sessions, anchors trader expectations around the 4.0–5.0 percent band. Q1 data showed 5.0 percent expansion driven by industrial output and exports, but Q2 readings moderated to roughly 4.3–4.7 percent amid persistent weakness in consumption and the property sector. Forecasters from the IMF, OECD, ADB, and major banks project full-year outcomes of 4.4–4.6 percent, citing resilient manufacturing and high-tech exports offsetting subdued domestic demand. Policy measures under the new Five-Year Plan emphasize advanced manufacturing and fiscal support, while limited spillover from external energy pressures has helped stabilize near-term momentum. These developments explain the heavy concentration of market-implied probability in the 4.0–5.0 percent range.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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