Daniel Noboa’s decisive re-election in April 2025 delivered a commanding legislative position and popular mandate that continues to anchor his presidency into mid-2026. Ecuador’s National Assembly lacks the supermajority required for impeachment, and no formal proceedings or resignation signals have emerged as of May. Recall referendum efforts face steep signature thresholds that make a vote before June 30 improbable. While opposition protests and criticism of security and economic policies persist, these have not translated into institutional mechanisms capable of forcing removal in the brief window remaining. Trader consensus at 95.5 percent “No” therefore reflects the absence of any active constitutional pathway, tempered only by the remote possibility of an unforeseen health crisis or sudden legal development.