Traders see the 180-199 range as the narrow frontrunner at 19.5% implied probability because Elon Musk’s posting pace often rebounds sharply after quieter stretches, such as the 99 tweets recorded the prior week amid business travel. Anticipation of a SpaceX IPO S-1 filing window and related updates during May 15-22 fuels expectations of higher engagement, while his documented activity on May 16—including multiple high-visibility replies on cultural and political topics—supports momentum toward the mid-180s. The tight clustering between 160-219 reflects how quickly his output can shift with breaking company news, viral threads, or platform priorities, leaving room for both upside spikes and sudden lulls before the May 22 close.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato180-199 20%
200-219 18.3%
160-179 16%
220-239 11.8%
$4,066,242 Vol.
$4,066,242 Vol.
22 mag 2026
40-59
<1%
60-79
<1%
80-99
<1%
100-119
1%
120-139
4%
140-159
11%
160-179
16%
180-199
20%
200-219
18%
220-239
12%
240-259
8%
260-279
5%
280-299
3%
300-319
2%
320-339
1%
340-359
1%
360-379
<1%
380-399
1%
400-419
<1%
420-439
<1%
440-459
<1%
460-479
<1%
480-499
<1%
500+
<1%
180-199 20%
200-219 18.3%
160-179 16%
220-239 11.8%
$4,066,242 Vol.
$4,066,242 Vol.
22 mag 2026
40-59
$184,914 Vol.
<1%
60-79
$252,349 Vol.
<1%
80-99
$241,274 Vol.
<1%
100-119
$217,151 Vol.
1%
120-139
$163,943 Vol.
4%
140-159
$149,500 Vol.
11%
160-179
$125,011 Vol.
16%
180-199
$107,926 Vol.
20%
200-219
$145,899 Vol.
18%
220-239
$139,493 Vol.
12%
240-259
$104,374 Vol.
8%
260-279
$111,058 Vol.
5%
280-299
$101,826 Vol.
3%
300-319
$130,024 Vol.
2%
320-339
$104,985 Vol.
1%
340-359
$134,720 Vol.
1%
360-379
$133,916 Vol.
<1%
380-399
$148,210 Vol.
1%
400-419
$166,963 Vol.
<1%
420-439
$219,866 Vol.
<1%
440-459
$121,203 Vol.
<1%
460-479
$120,876 Vol.
<1%
480-499
$163,834 Vol.
<1%
500+
$263,921 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from May 15 12:00 PM ET to May 22, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.Traders see the 180-199 range as the narrow frontrunner at 19.5% implied probability because Elon Musk’s posting pace often rebounds sharply after quieter stretches, such as the 99 tweets recorded the prior week amid business travel. Anticipation of a SpaceX IPO S-1 filing window and related updates during May 15-22 fuels expectations of higher engagement, while his documented activity on May 16—including multiple high-visibility replies on cultural and political topics—supports momentum toward the mid-180s. The tight clustering between 160-219 reflects how quickly his output can shift with breaking company news, viral threads, or platform priorities, leaving room for both upside spikes and sudden lulls before the May 22 close.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from May 15 12:00 PM ET to May 22, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Mercato aperto: May 12, 2026, 12:01 AM ET
Volume
$4,066,242Data di fine
22 mag 2026Mercato aperto
May 12, 2026, 12:01 AM ETFonte di risoluzione
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from May 15 12:00 PM ET to May 22, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.Traders see the 180-199 range as the narrow frontrunner at 19.5% implied probability because Elon Musk’s posting pace often rebounds sharply after quieter stretches, such as the 99 tweets recorded the prior week amid business travel. Anticipation of a SpaceX IPO S-1 filing window and related updates during May 15-22 fuels expectations of higher engagement, while his documented activity on May 16—including multiple high-visibility replies on cultural and political topics—supports momentum toward the mid-180s. The tight clustering between 160-219 reflects how quickly his output can shift with breaking company news, viral threads, or platform priorities, leaving room for both upside spikes and sudden lulls before the May 22 close.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from May 15 12:00 PM ET to May 22, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Volume
$4,066,242Data di fine
22 mag 2026Mercato aperto
May 12, 2026, 12:01 AM ETFonte di risoluzione
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x69c47De9D...Traders see the 180-199 range as the narrow frontrunner at 19.5% implied probability because Elon Musk’s posting pace often rebounds sharply after quieter stretches, such as the 99 tweets recorded the prior week amid business travel. Anticipation of a SpaceX IPO S-1 filing window and related updates during May 15-22 fuels expectations of higher engagement, while his documented activity on May 16—including multiple high-visibility replies on cultural and political topics—supports momentum toward the mid-180s. The tight clustering between 160-219 reflects how quickly his output can shift with breaking company news, viral threads, or platform priorities, leaving room for both upside spikes and sudden lulls before the May 22 close.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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