Traders assign a 99.4% probability that Eric Swalwell will not face arrest by May 31, driven by the absence of any active federal indictments, charges, or confirmed investigations targeting the California congressman. No recent DOJ actions, grand jury proceedings, or public disclosures have emerged to signal imminent enforcement, consistent with historical patterns where arrests of sitting House members follow extended formal processes rather than sudden developments. The two-week window leaves little room for procedural milestones such as arraignments or warrants. Scenarios that could still shift odds include an unexpected filing of charges or new evidence prompting rapid law enforcement steps, though none are indicated in current records.