Traders have coalesced around an 85.5% implied probability for Google's Gemini 3.2 large language model releasing on May 19, driven by recent leaks of Gemini 3.2 Flash in iOS app builds spotted May 5 and external testing on the Eleuther AI Arena revealing advanced coding and 3D capabilities. These developments, just days ahead of Google I/O on May 19-20, align with historical patterns of major AI model unveilings at the developer conference, including prior Gemini iterations. Competitive pressures from OpenAI and Anthropic further incentivize a timely debut, though rollout delays could shift odds to May 20 (5.2%); no release by May 31 holds just 1.3% amid mounting evidence of readiness. Watch the keynote for official confirmation.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoGemini 3.2 released on...?
Gemini 3.2 released on...?
May 19 86%
May 20 4.5%
May 18 4.1%
May 22 2.1%
$210,755 Vol.
$210,755 Vol.
31 mag 2026
May 12
<1%
May 13
<1%
May 14
1%
May 15
1%
May 16
<1%
May 17
<1%
May 18
4%
May 19
86%
May 20
4%
May 21
2%
May 22
2%
May 23
1%
May 24
<1%
May 25
1%
May 26
1%
May 27
1%
May 28
<1%
May 29
<1%
May 30
<1%
May 31
<1%
No release by May 31
1%
May 19 86%
May 20 4.5%
May 18 4.1%
May 22 2.1%
$210,755 Vol.
$210,755 Vol.
31 mag 2026
May 12
$7,784 Vol.
<1%
May 13
$3,368 Vol.
<1%
May 14
$3,770 Vol.
1%
May 15
$6,886 Vol.
1%
May 16
$5,588 Vol.
<1%
May 17
$6,507 Vol.
<1%
May 18
$16,480 Vol.
4%
May 19
$78,474 Vol.
86%
May 20
$12,574 Vol.
4%
May 21
$7,530 Vol.
2%
May 22
$9,273 Vol.
2%
May 23
$3,069 Vol.
1%
May 24
$3,950 Vol.
<1%
May 25
$2,132 Vol.
1%
May 26
$2,792 Vol.
1%
May 27
$2,335 Vol.
1%
May 28
$2,006 Vol.
<1%
May 29
$1,605 Vol.
<1%
May 30
$3,689 Vol.
<1%
May 31
$3,573 Vol.
<1%
No release by May 31
$8,948 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Google's Gemini 3.2 model is made available to the general public.
Gemini 3.2 refers to a product explicitly named Gemini 3.2, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to Gemini 3.1, similar to the progression from Gemini 3 to Gemini 3.1. (e.g., Gemini 3.2 GA, Gemini 3.2/3.3/3.4, etc., in any variant, like Pro/Deep Think/Flash/Flash-lite, would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market).
Specialized models for non-text modalities such as video generation (e.g., Veo), image generation (e.g., Imagen, Nano Banana), music generation (e.g., Lyria), or robotics (e.g., Gemini Robotics) will NOT qualify, even if released under the Gemini 3.2 version number. Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., Gemini 3.1 GA) or a new flagship generation (e.g., Gemini 4) or similar that are not explicitly labeled as described above will NOT qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Traders have coalesced around an 85.5% implied probability for Google's Gemini 3.2 large language model releasing on May 19, driven by recent leaks of Gemini 3.2 Flash in iOS app builds spotted May 5 and external testing on the Eleuther AI Arena revealing advanced coding and 3D capabilities. These developments, just days ahead of Google I/O on May 19-20, align with historical patterns of major AI model unveilings at the developer conference, including prior Gemini iterations. Competitive pressures from OpenAI and Anthropic further incentivize a timely debut, though rollout delays could shift odds to May 20 (5.2%); no release by May 31 holds just 1.3% amid mounting evidence of readiness. Watch the keynote for official confirmation.
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Google's Gemini 3.2 model is made available to the general public.
Gemini 3.2 refers to a product explicitly named Gemini 3.2, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to Gemini 3.1, similar to the progression from Gemini 3 to Gemini 3.1. (e.g., Gemini 3.2 GA, Gemini 3.2/3.3/3.4, etc., in any variant, like Pro/Deep Think/Flash/Flash-lite, would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market).
Specialized models for non-text modalities such as video generation (e.g., Veo), image generation (e.g., Imagen, Nano Banana), music generation (e.g., Lyria), or robotics (e.g., Gemini Robotics) will NOT qualify, even if released under the Gemini 3.2 version number. Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., Gemini 3.1 GA) or a new flagship generation (e.g., Gemini 4) or similar that are not explicitly labeled as described above will NOT qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Gemini 3.2 refers to a product explicitly named Gemini 3.2, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to Gemini 3.1, similar to the progression from Gemini 3 to Gemini 3.1. (e.g., Gemini 3.2 GA, Gemini 3.2/3.3/3.4, etc., in any variant, like Pro/Deep Think/Flash/Flash-lite, would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market).
Specialized models for non-text modalities such as video generation (e.g., Veo), image generation (e.g., Imagen, Nano Banana), music generation (e.g., Lyria), or robotics (e.g., Gemini Robotics) will NOT qualify, even if released under the Gemini 3.2 version number. Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., Gemini 3.1 GA) or a new flagship generation (e.g., Gemini 4) or similar that are not explicitly labeled as described above will NOT qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercato aperto: May 5, 2026, 7:43 PM ET
Volume
$210,755Data di fine
31 mag 2026Mercato aperto
May 5, 2026, 7:43 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Google's Gemini 3.2 model is made available to the general public.
Gemini 3.2 refers to a product explicitly named Gemini 3.2, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to Gemini 3.1, similar to the progression from Gemini 3 to Gemini 3.1. (e.g., Gemini 3.2 GA, Gemini 3.2/3.3/3.4, etc., in any variant, like Pro/Deep Think/Flash/Flash-lite, would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market).
Specialized models for non-text modalities such as video generation (e.g., Veo), image generation (e.g., Imagen, Nano Banana), music generation (e.g., Lyria), or robotics (e.g., Gemini Robotics) will NOT qualify, even if released under the Gemini 3.2 version number. Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., Gemini 3.1 GA) or a new flagship generation (e.g., Gemini 4) or similar that are not explicitly labeled as described above will NOT qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Traders have coalesced around an 85.5% implied probability for Google's Gemini 3.2 large language model releasing on May 19, driven by recent leaks of Gemini 3.2 Flash in iOS app builds spotted May 5 and external testing on the Eleuther AI Arena revealing advanced coding and 3D capabilities. These developments, just days ahead of Google I/O on May 19-20, align with historical patterns of major AI model unveilings at the developer conference, including prior Gemini iterations. Competitive pressures from OpenAI and Anthropic further incentivize a timely debut, though rollout delays could shift odds to May 20 (5.2%); no release by May 31 holds just 1.3% amid mounting evidence of readiness. Watch the keynote for official confirmation.
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Google's Gemini 3.2 model is made available to the general public.
Gemini 3.2 refers to a product explicitly named Gemini 3.2, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to Gemini 3.1, similar to the progression from Gemini 3 to Gemini 3.1. (e.g., Gemini 3.2 GA, Gemini 3.2/3.3/3.4, etc., in any variant, like Pro/Deep Think/Flash/Flash-lite, would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market).
Specialized models for non-text modalities such as video generation (e.g., Veo), image generation (e.g., Imagen, Nano Banana), music generation (e.g., Lyria), or robotics (e.g., Gemini Robotics) will NOT qualify, even if released under the Gemini 3.2 version number. Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., Gemini 3.1 GA) or a new flagship generation (e.g., Gemini 4) or similar that are not explicitly labeled as described above will NOT qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Gemini 3.2 refers to a product explicitly named Gemini 3.2, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to Gemini 3.1, similar to the progression from Gemini 3 to Gemini 3.1. (e.g., Gemini 3.2 GA, Gemini 3.2/3.3/3.4, etc., in any variant, like Pro/Deep Think/Flash/Flash-lite, would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market).
Specialized models for non-text modalities such as video generation (e.g., Veo), image generation (e.g., Imagen, Nano Banana), music generation (e.g., Lyria), or robotics (e.g., Gemini Robotics) will NOT qualify, even if released under the Gemini 3.2 version number. Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., Gemini 3.1 GA) or a new flagship generation (e.g., Gemini 4) or similar that are not explicitly labeled as described above will NOT qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$210,755Data di fine
31 mag 2026Mercato aperto
May 5, 2026, 7:43 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Traders have coalesced around an 85.5% implied probability for Google's Gemini 3.2 large language model releasing on May 19, driven by recent leaks of Gemini 3.2 Flash in iOS app builds spotted May 5 and external testing on the Eleuther AI Arena revealing advanced coding and 3D capabilities. These developments, just days ahead of Google I/O on May 19-20, align with historical patterns of major AI model unveilings at the developer conference, including prior Gemini iterations. Competitive pressures from OpenAI and Anthropic further incentivize a timely debut, though rollout delays could shift odds to May 20 (5.2%); no release by May 31 holds just 1.3% amid mounting evidence of readiness. Watch the keynote for official confirmation.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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