**Persistent high-pressure subsidence and clear skies over central Spain are positioning Madrid for a peak temperature near 38–39°C on August 13.** Official AEMET guidance and supporting model output (including BBC and extended-range ensembles) show sunny conditions with light northeasterly winds, minimal cloud cover, and strong daytime insolation typical of Madrid’s continental climate in mid-August. Recent observations of 36–38°C highs and stable patterns through the weekend have reinforced this range, keeping implied probabilities highest for 39°C (47.5 %) followed by 40°C (34.5 %). Ensemble spread remains modest given the short lead time, though any late increase in boundary-layer moisture or slight forecast shifts could nudge the realized maximum toward the upper or lower edge of the current trader consensus.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoLa temperatura più alta di Madrid il 13 agosto?
La temperatura più alta di Madrid il 13 agosto?
39°C 51%
40°C 35%
38°C 9%
41°C 6%
NUOVO
NUOVO
13 ago 2026
35°C or below
<1%
36°C
1%
37°C
3%
38°C
9%
39°C
51%
40°C
35%
41°C
6%
42°C
2%
43°C
1%
44°C
<1%
45°C o superiore
<1%
39°C 51%
40°C 35%
38°C 9%
41°C 6%
NUOVO
NUOVO
13 ago 2026
35°C or below
$25 Vol.
<1%
36°C
$25 Vol.
1%
37°C
$34 Vol.
3%
38°C
$65 Vol.
9%
39°C
$156 Vol.
51%
40°C
$139 Vol.
35%
41°C
$64 Vol.
6%
42°C
$95 Vol.
2%
43°C
$49 Vol.
1%
44°C
$149 Vol.
<1%
45°C o superiore
$22 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Persistent high-pressure subsidence and clear skies over central Spain are positioning Madrid for a peak temperature near 38–39°C on August 13.** Official AEMET guidance and supporting model output (including BBC and extended-range ensembles) show sunny conditions with light northeasterly winds, minimal cloud cover, and strong daytime insolation typical of Madrid’s continental climate in mid-August. Recent observations of 36–38°C highs and stable patterns through the weekend have reinforced this range, keeping implied probabilities highest for 39°C (47.5 %) followed by 40°C (34.5 %). Ensemble spread remains modest given the short lead time, though any late increase in boundary-layer moisture or slight forecast shifts could nudge the realized maximum toward the upper or lower edge of the current trader consensus.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Mercato aperto: Aug 11, 2026, 1:03 AM ET
Volume
$783Data di fine
13 ago 2026Mercato aperto
Aug 11, 2026, 1:03 AM ETFonte di risoluzione
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Persistent high-pressure subsidence and clear skies over central Spain are positioning Madrid for a peak temperature near 38–39°C on August 13.** Official AEMET guidance and supporting model output (including BBC and extended-range ensembles) show sunny conditions with light northeasterly winds, minimal cloud cover, and strong daytime insolation typical of Madrid’s continental climate in mid-August. Recent observations of 36–38°C highs and stable patterns through the weekend have reinforced this range, keeping implied probabilities highest for 39°C (47.5 %) followed by 40°C (34.5 %). Ensemble spread remains modest given the short lead time, though any late increase in boundary-layer moisture or slight forecast shifts could nudge the realized maximum toward the upper or lower edge of the current trader consensus.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$783Data di fine
13 ago 2026Mercato aperto
Aug 11, 2026, 1:03 AM ETFonte di risoluzione
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Persistent high-pressure subsidence and clear skies over central Spain are positioning Madrid for a peak temperature near 38–39°C on August 13.** Official AEMET guidance and supporting model output (including BBC and extended-range ensembles) show sunny conditions with light northeasterly winds, minimal cloud cover, and strong daytime insolation typical of Madrid’s continental climate in mid-August. Recent observations of 36–38°C highs and stable patterns through the weekend have reinforced this range, keeping implied probabilities highest for 39°C (47.5 %) followed by 40°C (34.5 %). Ensemble spread remains modest given the short lead time, though any late increase in boundary-layer moisture or slight forecast shifts could nudge the realized maximum toward the upper or lower edge of the current trader consensus.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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