Current AEMET and ensemble model guidance indicate a post-heatwave cooling trend, with Madrid's maximum temperature on June 26 expected near 32–33 °C under weakening southerly flow and increasing Atlantic influence. Official AEMET outlooks list a 32 °C high, while global models such as ECMWF and GFS cluster in the low- to mid-30s °C range, reflecting typical diurnal peaks measured at Retiro or Barajas stations. Recent observations show a sharp drop from the 38.3 °C peak on June 22, tightening the distribution around these values and explaining why 32 °C and 33 °C together command over 75 % of market-implied probability. Resolution hinges on the single official daily maximum reported by AEMET, with limited upside risk from residual warm advection before frontal passage.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoHighest temperature in Madrid on June 26?
Highest temperature in Madrid on June 26?
33°C 100.0%
29°C or below <1%
30°C <1%
31°C <1%
$94,140 Vol.
$94,140 Vol.
26 giu 2026
29°C or below
No
30°C
No
31°C
No
32°C
No
33°C
Yes
34°C
No
35°C
No
36°C
No
37°C
No
38°C
No
39°C or higher
No
33°C 100.0%
29°C or below <1%
30°C <1%
31°C <1%
$94,140 Vol.
$94,140 Vol.
26 giu 2026
29°C or below
$1,739 Vol.
No
30°C
$4,362 Vol.
No
31°C
$7,130 Vol.
No
32°C
$13,301 Vol.
No
33°C
$31,726 Vol.
Yes
34°C
$13,466 Vol.
No
35°C
$7,574 Vol.
No
36°C
$5,466 Vol.
No
37°C
$2,922 Vol.
No
38°C
$2,661 Vol.
No
39°C or higher
$3,795 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current AEMET and ensemble model guidance indicate a post-heatwave cooling trend, with Madrid's maximum temperature on June 26 expected near 32–33 °C under weakening southerly flow and increasing Atlantic influence. Official AEMET outlooks list a 32 °C high, while global models such as ECMWF and GFS cluster in the low- to mid-30s °C range, reflecting typical diurnal peaks measured at Retiro or Barajas stations. Recent observations show a sharp drop from the 38.3 °C peak on June 22, tightening the distribution around these values and explaining why 32 °C and 33 °C together command over 75 % of market-implied probability. Resolution hinges on the single official daily maximum reported by AEMET, with limited upside risk from residual warm advection before frontal passage.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Mercato aperto: Jun 24, 2026, 1:03 AM ET
Volume
$94,140Data di fine
26 giu 2026Mercato aperto
Jun 24, 2026, 1:03 AM ETFonte di risoluzione
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Esito proposto: No
Nessuna contestazione
Esito finale: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current AEMET and ensemble model guidance indicate a post-heatwave cooling trend, with Madrid's maximum temperature on June 26 expected near 32–33 °C under weakening southerly flow and increasing Atlantic influence. Official AEMET outlooks list a 32 °C high, while global models such as ECMWF and GFS cluster in the low- to mid-30s °C range, reflecting typical diurnal peaks measured at Retiro or Barajas stations. Recent observations show a sharp drop from the 38.3 °C peak on June 22, tightening the distribution around these values and explaining why 32 °C and 33 °C together command over 75 % of market-implied probability. Resolution hinges on the single official daily maximum reported by AEMET, with limited upside risk from residual warm advection before frontal passage.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$94,140Data di fine
26 giu 2026Mercato aperto
Jun 24, 2026, 1:03 AM ETFonte di risoluzione
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Esito proposto: No
Nessuna contestazione
Esito finale: No
Current AEMET and ensemble model guidance indicate a post-heatwave cooling trend, with Madrid's maximum temperature on June 26 expected near 32–33 °C under weakening southerly flow and increasing Atlantic influence. Official AEMET outlooks list a 32 °C high, while global models such as ECMWF and GFS cluster in the low- to mid-30s °C range, reflecting typical diurnal peaks measured at Retiro or Barajas stations. Recent observations show a sharp drop from the 38.3 °C peak on June 22, tightening the distribution around these values and explaining why 32 °C and 33 °C together command over 75 % of market-implied probability. Resolution hinges on the single official daily maximum reported by AEMET, with limited upside risk from residual warm advection before frontal passage.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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