Current numerical weather prediction models, including ensemble runs from global forecasting systems, show Shanghai's May 22 maximum temperature most likely settling between 24°C and 26°C under the influence of a stable subtropical high-pressure ridge that limits strong warming while allowing moderate daytime heating. This consensus arises from typical late-spring conditions featuring average highs near 25°C, modulated by variable cloud cover and light southerly flow that tempers peak values without significant cold advection. Traders assign the highest implied probabilities to 24°C and 25°C because minor shifts in boundary-layer moisture or insolation can easily alter the daily maximum by 1–2°C, a common source of forecast spread at this time of year. Updated model outputs and local observations from the China Meteorological Administration will provide the next key refinements before market resolution.