Persistent rain and extensive cloud cover from a northerly flow are suppressing daytime heating in Tokyo, positioning 20–22°C as the most likely maximum temperature range for September 11. Multiple forecast models show highs near 20°C under overcast skies with near-100% precipitation probability and light northerly winds, consistent with the market-implied probabilities favoring 21°C (38.5%) and 22°C (28.0%). This represents a notable departure from typical early-September climatology, where clearer conditions often allow peaks several degrees higher. Traders appear to be weighting the consensus guidance from operational models, with limited upside risk from clearing trends before peak heating hours. Updated model runs and official observations through the morning of the 11th will provide the final inputs for resolution.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoLa temperatura più alta a Tokyo l'11 settembre?
La temperatura più alta a Tokyo l'11 settembre?
21°C 43%
20°C 31%
22°C 18%
19°C 5%
NUOVO
NUOVO
11 set 2026
15°C o meno
<1%
16°C
<1%
17°C
<1%
18°C
2%
19°C
5%
20°C
31%
21°C
43%
22°C
18%
23°C
5%
24°C
2%
25°C o superiore
<1%
21°C 43%
20°C 31%
22°C 18%
19°C 5%
NUOVO
NUOVO
11 set 2026
15°C o meno
$1,279 Vol.
<1%
16°C
$1,124 Vol.
<1%
17°C
$297 Vol.
<1%
18°C
$11 Vol.
2%
19°C
$312 Vol.
5%
20°C
$2,252 Vol.
31%
21°C
$1,045 Vol.
43%
22°C
$970 Vol.
18%
23°C
$570 Vol.
5%
24°C
$259 Vol.
2%
25°C o superiore
$468 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Persistent rain and extensive cloud cover from a northerly flow are suppressing daytime heating in Tokyo, positioning 20–22°C as the most likely maximum temperature range for September 11. Multiple forecast models show highs near 20°C under overcast skies with near-100% precipitation probability and light northerly winds, consistent with the market-implied probabilities favoring 21°C (38.5%) and 22°C (28.0%). This represents a notable departure from typical early-September climatology, where clearer conditions often allow peaks several degrees higher. Traders appear to be weighting the consensus guidance from operational models, with limited upside risk from clearing trends before peak heating hours. Updated model runs and official observations through the morning of the 11th will provide the final inputs for resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Mercato aperto: Sep 9, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
Volume
$8,587Data di fine
11 set 2026Mercato aperto
Sep 9, 2026, 12:56 AM ETFonte di risoluzione
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjttRisolutore
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Persistent rain and extensive cloud cover from a northerly flow are suppressing daytime heating in Tokyo, positioning 20–22°C as the most likely maximum temperature range for September 11. Multiple forecast models show highs near 20°C under overcast skies with near-100% precipitation probability and light northerly winds, consistent with the market-implied probabilities favoring 21°C (38.5%) and 22°C (28.0%). This represents a notable departure from typical early-September climatology, where clearer conditions often allow peaks several degrees higher. Traders appear to be weighting the consensus guidance from operational models, with limited upside risk from clearing trends before peak heating hours. Updated model runs and official observations through the morning of the 11th will provide the final inputs for resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$8,587Data di fine
11 set 2026Mercato aperto
Sep 9, 2026, 12:56 AM ETFonte di risoluzione
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjttRisolutore
0x69c47De9D...Persistent rain and extensive cloud cover from a northerly flow are suppressing daytime heating in Tokyo, positioning 20–22°C as the most likely maximum temperature range for September 11. Multiple forecast models show highs near 20°C under overcast skies with near-100% precipitation probability and light northerly winds, consistent with the market-implied probabilities favoring 21°C (38.5%) and 22°C (28.0%). This represents a notable departure from typical early-September climatology, where clearer conditions often allow peaks several degrees higher. Traders appear to be weighting the consensus guidance from operational models, with limited upside risk from clearing trends before peak heating hours. Updated model runs and official observations through the morning of the 11th will provide the final inputs for resolution.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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