Latest meteorological guidance from regional models places Wellington’s expected maximum temperature for May 22 in the 15–17 °C range, aligning with the market’s strongest implied probabilities on 16 °C and 17 °C. Mid-autumn southerly flow and persistent cloud cover are moderating daytime heating, consistent with climatological norms where May highs average 14–16 °C under similar synoptic patterns. Recent stable high-pressure setups have kept overnight lows elevated, limiting the diurnal range and supporting modest afternoon peaks near 16 °C. Updated model runs show minimal spread, though small shifts in wind direction or cloud timing could alter the final reading by 1–2 °C. Traders are weighting these near-term conditions heavily ahead of official MetService verification.