Ongoing regional tensions with Iran, including the breakdown of a July 2026 ceasefire and renewed military activity near the Strait of Hormuz, have shaped trader views on the risk of Israeli airspace closure. Multiple temporary shutdowns and reopenings occurred earlier in 2026 tied to strikes and retaliatory missile or drone activity, yet the Tel Aviv FIR has remained open since at least mid-August with scheduled flights continuing. EASA guidance continues to flag elevated risk without prohibiting operations, while many international carriers have not fully resumed service. No major escalatory events have triggered new restrictions in recent weeks, leaving near-term closure probabilities low amid the volatile but currently stable security environment.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato$27,265,088 Vol.
14 lug 2026
31 agosto
5%
30 settembre
12%
$27,265,088 Vol.
31 agosto
$1,232,891 Vol.
5%
30 settembre
$316 Vol.
12%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Ongoing regional tensions with Iran, including the breakdown of a July 2026 ceasefire and renewed military activity near the Strait of Hormuz, have shaped trader views on the risk of Israeli airspace closure. Multiple temporary shutdowns and reopenings occurred earlier in 2026 tied to strikes and retaliatory missile or drone activity, yet the Tel Aviv FIR has remained open since at least mid-August with scheduled flights continuing. EASA guidance continues to flag elevated risk without prohibiting operations, while many international carriers have not fully resumed service. No major escalatory events have triggered new restrictions in recent weeks, leaving near-term closure probabilities low amid the volatile but currently stable security environment.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercato aperto: Jun 29, 2026, 10:46 AM ET
Volume
$27,265,088Data di fine
31 mag 2026Mercato aperto
Jun 29, 2026, 10:46 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Ongoing regional tensions with Iran, including the breakdown of a July 2026 ceasefire and renewed military activity near the Strait of Hormuz, have shaped trader views on the risk of Israeli airspace closure. Multiple temporary shutdowns and reopenings occurred earlier in 2026 tied to strikes and retaliatory missile or drone activity, yet the Tel Aviv FIR has remained open since at least mid-August with scheduled flights continuing. EASA guidance continues to flag elevated risk without prohibiting operations, while many international carriers have not fully resumed service. No major escalatory events have triggered new restrictions in recent weeks, leaving near-term closure probabilities low amid the volatile but currently stable security environment.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$27,265,088Data di fine
31 mag 2026Mercato aperto
Jun 29, 2026, 10:46 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Ongoing regional tensions with Iran, including the breakdown of a July 2026 ceasefire and renewed military activity near the Strait of Hormuz, have shaped trader views on the risk of Israeli airspace closure. Multiple temporary shutdowns and reopenings occurred earlier in 2026 tied to strikes and retaliatory missile or drone activity, yet the Tel Aviv FIR has remained open since at least mid-August with scheduled flights continuing. EASA guidance continues to flag elevated risk without prohibiting operations, while many international carriers have not fully resumed service. No major escalatory events have triggered new restrictions in recent weeks, leaving near-term closure probabilities low amid the volatile but currently stable security environment.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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