**Recent polling averages project Likud at roughly 20–23 Knesset seats for the October 27, 2026 election, well below the 32 seats it secured in 2022.** This consistent gap underpins the 91.5% trader consensus on a seat loss. Multiple surveys through mid-September show the party trailing or tied with Gadi Eisenkot’s Yashar party while Netanyahu’s broader coalition bloc hovers around 52–55 seats, short of the 61-seat majority threshold. Factors cited in reporting include sustained public focus on security outcomes after regional conflicts, debates over Haredi conscription legislation, and competition from newer centrist and right-leaning lists. With the campaign entering its final weeks and candidate lists finalized, no major polling shift has reversed the projected decline for Likud relative to its prior result.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato92% probabilità
$18,075 Vol.
$18,075 Vol.
26 ott 2026
92% probabilità
$18,075 Vol.
$18,075 Vol.
26 ott 2026
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Likud party wins less than 32 seats in the Israeli Knesset in this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the Likud party contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the Likud party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list on which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).**Recent polling averages project Likud at roughly 20–23 Knesset seats for the October 27, 2026 election, well below the 32 seats it secured in 2022.** This consistent gap underpins the 91.5% trader consensus on a seat loss. Multiple surveys through mid-September show the party trailing or tied with Gadi Eisenkot’s Yashar party while Netanyahu’s broader coalition bloc hovers around 52–55 seats, short of the 61-seat majority threshold. Factors cited in reporting include sustained public focus on security outcomes after regional conflicts, debates over Haredi conscription legislation, and competition from newer centrist and right-leaning lists. With the campaign entering its final weeks and candidate lists finalized, no major polling shift has reversed the projected decline for Likud relative to its prior result.
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Likud party wins less than 32 seats in the Israeli Knesset in this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the Likud party contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the Likud party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list on which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Likud party wins less than 32 seats in the Israeli Knesset in this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the Likud party contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the Likud party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list on which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).
Mercato aperto: Apr 29, 2026, 7:37 PM ET
Volume
$18,075Data di fine
27 ott 2026Mercato aperto
Apr 29, 2026, 7:37 PM ETRisolutore
0x65070BE91...Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Likud party wins less than 32 seats in the Israeli Knesset in this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the Likud party contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the Likud party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list on which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).**Recent polling averages project Likud at roughly 20–23 Knesset seats for the October 27, 2026 election, well below the 32 seats it secured in 2022.** This consistent gap underpins the 91.5% trader consensus on a seat loss. Multiple surveys through mid-September show the party trailing or tied with Gadi Eisenkot’s Yashar party while Netanyahu’s broader coalition bloc hovers around 52–55 seats, short of the 61-seat majority threshold. Factors cited in reporting include sustained public focus on security outcomes after regional conflicts, debates over Haredi conscription legislation, and competition from newer centrist and right-leaning lists. With the campaign entering its final weeks and candidate lists finalized, no major polling shift has reversed the projected decline for Likud relative to its prior result.
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Likud party wins less than 32 seats in the Israeli Knesset in this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the Likud party contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the Likud party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list on which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Likud party wins less than 32 seats in the Israeli Knesset in this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the Likud party contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the Likud party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list on which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).
Volume
$18,075Data di fine
27 ott 2026Mercato aperto
Apr 29, 2026, 7:37 PM ETRisolutore
0x65070BE91...**Recent polling averages project Likud at roughly 20–23 Knesset seats for the October 27, 2026 election, well below the 32 seats it secured in 2022.** This consistent gap underpins the 91.5% trader consensus on a seat loss. Multiple surveys through mid-September show the party trailing or tied with Gadi Eisenkot’s Yashar party while Netanyahu’s broader coalition bloc hovers around 52–55 seats, short of the 61-seat majority threshold. Factors cited in reporting include sustained public focus on security outcomes after regional conflicts, debates over Haredi conscription legislation, and competition from newer centrist and right-leaning lists. With the campaign entering its final weeks and candidate lists finalized, no major polling shift has reversed the projected decline for Likud relative to its prior result.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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