The @khamenei_ir account, which posts statements attributed to the late Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, has sustained a pattern of minimal activity since his death earlier in 2026, typically limited to occasional archival or commemorative material rather than new statements. Through mid-August 2026, only a handful of posts appeared in the resolution window, with none recorded between August 14 and 17. This rhythm aligns with Iran's post-transition environment, where official communications from the account emphasize restraint and institutional continuity under the new Supreme Leader. Traders assign overwhelming probability to fewer than five total posts because the account has shown no signs of increasing volume despite regional developments. A major escalation or official directive could still prompt additional releases before August 18, though historical patterns indicate such shifts remain rare.