South Korea’s constitutional immunity under Article 84 protects President Lee Jae-myung from arrest or prosecution on existing charges, including election-law violations, Daejang-dong graft, and alleged North Korea remittances, except in cases of insurrection or treason. Courts have indefinitely suspended all pending trials since his June 2025 inauguration, and no new indictments have emerged that could override this shield before the 2030 term ends. Traders assign an 89.8 percent probability that he will not be arrested by December 31, 2026, reflecting the absence of recent legal developments capable of breaching immunity. Opposition parties continue to criticize his administration and file complaints, yet these efforts lack the legislative support needed for impeachment or special-counsel actions that could alter his protected status.