**As South Korea’s sitting president since his June 2025 snap election victory, Lee Jae-myung benefits from constitutional immunity under Article 84 that shields him from criminal prosecution or arrest for most offenses while in office.** His five pending cases—centered on Daejang-dong development allegations, alleged North Korea remittances, election-law violations, and related charges—remain suspended, with courts postponing proceedings and related acquittals in co-defendant trials not appealed by prosecutors. Recent police dismissals of complaints and stalled opposition efforts to advance “fabricated indictment” probes have further reduced momentum for renewed action. Ruling-party dominance in the National Assembly and Lee’s active governance role, including policy and diplomatic initiatives through 2026, make any successful arrest warrant before 2027 highly improbable absent extraordinary circumstances such as constitutional removal. Trader consensus at 92.8% “No” reflects these structural and procedural barriers.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoLee Jae-myung arrestato prima del 2027?
Lee Jae-myung arrestato prima del 2027?
Sì
7% probabilità
$539,747 Vol.
$539,747 Vol.
31 dic 2026
Sì
7% probabilità
$539,747 Vol.
$539,747 Vol.
31 dic 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Leader of the Democratic Party of Korea Lee Jae-myung is arrested or detained by law enforcement by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**As South Korea’s sitting president since his June 2025 snap election victory, Lee Jae-myung benefits from constitutional immunity under Article 84 that shields him from criminal prosecution or arrest for most offenses while in office.** His five pending cases—centered on Daejang-dong development allegations, alleged North Korea remittances, election-law violations, and related charges—remain suspended, with courts postponing proceedings and related acquittals in co-defendant trials not appealed by prosecutors. Recent police dismissals of complaints and stalled opposition efforts to advance “fabricated indictment” probes have further reduced momentum for renewed action.
Ruling-party dominance in the National Assembly and Lee’s active governance role, including policy and diplomatic initiatives through 2026, make any successful arrest warrant before 2027 highly improbable absent extraordinary circumstances such as constitutional removal. Trader consensus at 92.8% “No” reflects these structural and procedural barriers.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Leader of the Democratic Party of Korea Lee Jae-myung is arrested or detained by law enforcement by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercato aperto: Nov 5, 2025, 12:46 PM ET
Volume
$539,747Data di fine
1 gen 2027Mercato aperto
Nov 5, 2025, 12:46 PM ETRisolutore
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Leader of the Democratic Party of Korea Lee Jae-myung is arrested or detained by law enforcement by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**As South Korea’s sitting president since his June 2025 snap election victory, Lee Jae-myung benefits from constitutional immunity under Article 84 that shields him from criminal prosecution or arrest for most offenses while in office.** His five pending cases—centered on Daejang-dong development allegations, alleged North Korea remittances, election-law violations, and related charges—remain suspended, with courts postponing proceedings and related acquittals in co-defendant trials not appealed by prosecutors. Recent police dismissals of complaints and stalled opposition efforts to advance “fabricated indictment” probes have further reduced momentum for renewed action.
Ruling-party dominance in the National Assembly and Lee’s active governance role, including policy and diplomatic initiatives through 2026, make any successful arrest warrant before 2027 highly improbable absent extraordinary circumstances such as constitutional removal. Trader consensus at 92.8% “No” reflects these structural and procedural barriers.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Leader of the Democratic Party of Korea Lee Jae-myung is arrested or detained by law enforcement by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$539,747Data di fine
1 gen 2027Mercato aperto
Nov 5, 2025, 12:46 PM ETRisolutore
0x65070BE91...**As South Korea’s sitting president since his June 2025 snap election victory, Lee Jae-myung benefits from constitutional immunity under Article 84 that shields him from criminal prosecution or arrest for most offenses while in office.** His five pending cases—centered on Daejang-dong development allegations, alleged North Korea remittances, election-law violations, and related charges—remain suspended, with courts postponing proceedings and related acquittals in co-defendant trials not appealed by prosecutors. Recent police dismissals of complaints and stalled opposition efforts to advance “fabricated indictment” probes have further reduced momentum for renewed action. Ruling-party dominance in the National Assembly and Lee’s active governance role, including policy and diplomatic initiatives through 2026, make any successful arrest warrant before 2027 highly improbable absent extraordinary circumstances such as constitutional removal. Trader consensus at 92.8% “No” reflects these structural and procedural barriers.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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