**A heatwave driven by high pressure and southerly flow is keeping overnight lows elevated across southeast England, pushing the market-implied probability for London’s July 9 minimum toward the 18–20 °C range.** Current model consensus from the Met Office and ECMWF shows daytime maxima of 27–34 °C mid-week, with “tropical nights” where urban heat-island effects and light winds limit radiative cooling, holding minima near or above 18 °C. This aligns with the tight clustering of leading outcomes (18 °C or below at 47.5 %, 20 °C at 44.5 %). Forecasters note that exact nocturnal temperatures remain sensitive to small changes in cloud cover, wind speed, and boundary-layer moisture; later model runs could shift the minimum by 1–2 °C either way. Historical July averages (around 14–15 °C) highlight the anomaly, but traders are weighting the short-term dynamical forecast more heavily as resolution nears.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoLowest temperature in London on July 9?
Lowest temperature in London on July 9?
22°C 39%
21°C 30%
20°C 13%
23°C 9%
NUOVO
NUOVO
9 lug 2026
18°C or below
3%
19°C
3%
20°C
13%
21°C
30%
22°C
39%
23°C
9%
24°C
5%
25°C
1%
26°C
1%
27°C
<1%
28°C or higher
<1%
22°C 39%
21°C 30%
20°C 13%
23°C 9%
NUOVO
NUOVO
9 lug 2026
18°C or below
$31 Vol.
3%
19°C
$8 Vol.
3%
20°C
$0 Vol.
13%
21°C
$125 Vol.
30%
22°C
$27 Vol.
39%
23°C
$1 Vol.
9%
24°C
$61 Vol.
5%
25°C
$5 Vol.
1%
26°C
$27 Vol.
1%
27°C
$22 Vol.
<1%
28°C or higher
$22 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the London City Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**A heatwave driven by high pressure and southerly flow is keeping overnight lows elevated across southeast England, pushing the market-implied probability for London’s July 9 minimum toward the 18–20 °C range.**
Current model consensus from the Met Office and ECMWF shows daytime maxima of 27–34 °C mid-week, with “tropical nights” where urban heat-island effects and light winds limit radiative cooling, holding minima near or above 18 °C. This aligns with the tight clustering of leading outcomes (18 °C or below at 47.5 %, 20 °C at 44.5 %). Forecasters note that exact nocturnal temperatures remain sensitive to small changes in cloud cover, wind speed, and boundary-layer moisture; later model runs could shift the minimum by 1–2 °C either way. Historical July averages (around 14–15 °C) highlight the anomaly, but traders are weighting the short-term dynamical forecast more heavily as resolution nears.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the London City Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the London City Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Mercato aperto: Jul 7, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$328Data di fine
9 lug 2026Mercato aperto
Jul 7, 2026, 12:30 AM ETFonte di risoluzione
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLCResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the London City Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**A heatwave driven by high pressure and southerly flow is keeping overnight lows elevated across southeast England, pushing the market-implied probability for London’s July 9 minimum toward the 18–20 °C range.**
Current model consensus from the Met Office and ECMWF shows daytime maxima of 27–34 °C mid-week, with “tropical nights” where urban heat-island effects and light winds limit radiative cooling, holding minima near or above 18 °C. This aligns with the tight clustering of leading outcomes (18 °C or below at 47.5 %, 20 °C at 44.5 %). Forecasters note that exact nocturnal temperatures remain sensitive to small changes in cloud cover, wind speed, and boundary-layer moisture; later model runs could shift the minimum by 1–2 °C either way. Historical July averages (around 14–15 °C) highlight the anomaly, but traders are weighting the short-term dynamical forecast more heavily as resolution nears.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the London City Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the London City Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$328Data di fine
9 lug 2026Mercato aperto
Jul 7, 2026, 12:30 AM ETFonte di risoluzione
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLCResolver
0x69c47De9D...**A heatwave driven by high pressure and southerly flow is keeping overnight lows elevated across southeast England, pushing the market-implied probability for London’s July 9 minimum toward the 18–20 °C range.** Current model consensus from the Met Office and ECMWF shows daytime maxima of 27–34 °C mid-week, with “tropical nights” where urban heat-island effects and light winds limit radiative cooling, holding minima near or above 18 °C. This aligns with the tight clustering of leading outcomes (18 °C or below at 47.5 %, 20 °C at 44.5 %). Forecasters note that exact nocturnal temperatures remain sensitive to small changes in cloud cover, wind speed, and boundary-layer moisture; later model runs could shift the minimum by 1–2 °C either way. Historical July averages (around 14–15 °C) highlight the anomaly, but traders are weighting the short-term dynamical forecast more heavily as resolution nears.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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