Microsoft’s June 2026 Build announcement of MAI-Thinking-1, its first in-house reasoning model, established the baseline for trader expectations around successors. The 35B-active-parameter MoE model, trained from scratch without distillation, achieved competitive results on SWE-Bench Pro, AIME benchmarks, and human evaluations versus Claude Sonnet 4.6 while emphasizing enterprise-grade data and lower inference costs. Its August public preview on Microsoft Foundry and the company’s stated “hill-climbing machine” approach signal ongoing iterative releases rather than one-off launches. Competitive pressure from OpenAI, Anthropic, and Google reasoning models, combined with Microsoft’s push for independence from external providers, supports sentiment for a follow-on thinking model before year-end. Key catalysts include developer conferences, Foundry updates, and any new benchmark or capability announcements that could accelerate or delay resolution.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoNew MAI thinking model released by...?
New MAI thinking model released by...?
NUOVO
30 set 2026
September 30
26%
December 31
55%
$489 Vol.
September 30
$188 Vol.
26%
December 31
$301 Vol.
55%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Microsoft releases a successor to MAI-Thinking-1 that is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A “successor to MAI-Thinking-1” refers to any model explicitly designated by Microsoft as part of its MAI (Microsoft AI) model family and as a thinking or reasoning model, or presented as Microsoft’s next general-purpose reasoning model or widely regarded as the successor to MAI-Thinking-1.
Task-specialized models, cost-efficiency variants, or similar releases will not count unless they are explicitly designated as thinking or reasoning models or widely regarded as successors to MAI-Thinking-1.
Products outside of the MAI family or not designated as thinking or reasoning models will NOT qualify.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Microsoft as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Microsoft (e.g., https://microsoft.ai/models), with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Microsoft’s June 2026 Build announcement of MAI-Thinking-1, its first in-house reasoning model, established the baseline for trader expectations around successors. The 35B-active-parameter MoE model, trained from scratch without distillation, achieved competitive results on SWE-Bench Pro, AIME benchmarks, and human evaluations versus Claude Sonnet 4.6 while emphasizing enterprise-grade data and lower inference costs. Its August public preview on Microsoft Foundry and the company’s stated “hill-climbing machine” approach signal ongoing iterative releases rather than one-off launches. Competitive pressure from OpenAI, Anthropic, and Google reasoning models, combined with Microsoft’s push for independence from external providers, supports sentiment for a follow-on thinking model before year-end. Key catalysts include developer conferences, Foundry updates, and any new benchmark or capability announcements that could accelerate or delay resolution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Microsoft releases a successor to MAI-Thinking-1 that is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A “successor to MAI-Thinking-1” refers to any model explicitly designated by Microsoft as part of its MAI (Microsoft AI) model family and as a thinking or reasoning model, or presented as Microsoft’s next general-purpose reasoning model or widely regarded as the successor to MAI-Thinking-1.
Task-specialized models, cost-efficiency variants, or similar releases will not count unless they are explicitly designated as thinking or reasoning models or widely regarded as successors to MAI-Thinking-1.
Products outside of the MAI family or not designated as thinking or reasoning models will NOT qualify.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Microsoft as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Microsoft (e.g., https://microsoft.ai/models), with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
A “successor to MAI-Thinking-1” refers to any model explicitly designated by Microsoft as part of its MAI (Microsoft AI) model family and as a thinking or reasoning model, or presented as Microsoft’s next general-purpose reasoning model or widely regarded as the successor to MAI-Thinking-1.
Task-specialized models, cost-efficiency variants, or similar releases will not count unless they are explicitly designated as thinking or reasoning models or widely regarded as successors to MAI-Thinking-1.
Products outside of the MAI family or not designated as thinking or reasoning models will NOT qualify.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Microsoft as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Microsoft (e.g., https://microsoft.ai/models), with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercato aperto: Jul 11, 2026, 2:45 PM ET
Volume
$489Data di fine
1 gen 2027Mercato aperto
Jul 11, 2026, 2:45 PM ETRisolutore
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Microsoft releases a successor to MAI-Thinking-1 that is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A “successor to MAI-Thinking-1” refers to any model explicitly designated by Microsoft as part of its MAI (Microsoft AI) model family and as a thinking or reasoning model, or presented as Microsoft’s next general-purpose reasoning model or widely regarded as the successor to MAI-Thinking-1.
Task-specialized models, cost-efficiency variants, or similar releases will not count unless they are explicitly designated as thinking or reasoning models or widely regarded as successors to MAI-Thinking-1.
Products outside of the MAI family or not designated as thinking or reasoning models will NOT qualify.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Microsoft as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Microsoft (e.g., https://microsoft.ai/models), with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Microsoft’s June 2026 Build announcement of MAI-Thinking-1, its first in-house reasoning model, established the baseline for trader expectations around successors. The 35B-active-parameter MoE model, trained from scratch without distillation, achieved competitive results on SWE-Bench Pro, AIME benchmarks, and human evaluations versus Claude Sonnet 4.6 while emphasizing enterprise-grade data and lower inference costs. Its August public preview on Microsoft Foundry and the company’s stated “hill-climbing machine” approach signal ongoing iterative releases rather than one-off launches. Competitive pressure from OpenAI, Anthropic, and Google reasoning models, combined with Microsoft’s push for independence from external providers, supports sentiment for a follow-on thinking model before year-end. Key catalysts include developer conferences, Foundry updates, and any new benchmark or capability announcements that could accelerate or delay resolution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Microsoft releases a successor to MAI-Thinking-1 that is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A “successor to MAI-Thinking-1” refers to any model explicitly designated by Microsoft as part of its MAI (Microsoft AI) model family and as a thinking or reasoning model, or presented as Microsoft’s next general-purpose reasoning model or widely regarded as the successor to MAI-Thinking-1.
Task-specialized models, cost-efficiency variants, or similar releases will not count unless they are explicitly designated as thinking or reasoning models or widely regarded as successors to MAI-Thinking-1.
Products outside of the MAI family or not designated as thinking or reasoning models will NOT qualify.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Microsoft as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Microsoft (e.g., https://microsoft.ai/models), with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
A “successor to MAI-Thinking-1” refers to any model explicitly designated by Microsoft as part of its MAI (Microsoft AI) model family and as a thinking or reasoning model, or presented as Microsoft’s next general-purpose reasoning model or widely regarded as the successor to MAI-Thinking-1.
Task-specialized models, cost-efficiency variants, or similar releases will not count unless they are explicitly designated as thinking or reasoning models or widely regarded as successors to MAI-Thinking-1.
Products outside of the MAI family or not designated as thinking or reasoning models will NOT qualify.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Microsoft as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Microsoft (e.g., https://microsoft.ai/models), with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$489Data di fine
1 gen 2027Mercato aperto
Jul 11, 2026, 2:45 PM ETRisolutore
0x65070BE91...Microsoft’s June 2026 Build announcement of MAI-Thinking-1, its first in-house reasoning model, established the baseline for trader expectations around successors. The 35B-active-parameter MoE model, trained from scratch without distillation, achieved competitive results on SWE-Bench Pro, AIME benchmarks, and human evaluations versus Claude Sonnet 4.6 while emphasizing enterprise-grade data and lower inference costs. Its August public preview on Microsoft Foundry and the company’s stated “hill-climbing machine” approach signal ongoing iterative releases rather than one-off launches. Competitive pressure from OpenAI, Anthropic, and Google reasoning models, combined with Microsoft’s push for independence from external providers, supports sentiment for a follow-on thinking model before year-end. Key catalysts include developer conferences, Foundry updates, and any new benchmark or capability announcements that could accelerate or delay resolution.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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