**The Uprising**, a Paul Greengrass-directed R-rated historical drama about the 1381 Peasants’ Revolt starring Andrew Garfield, opens wide on September 10–11 with limited mainstream appeal and modest pre-release tracking. Its focus on a period war narrative, rather than broad action or franchise elements, aligns with the market’s strong 54.5% implied probability for under $4.5 million domestically. The clustered 24–25% odds across the higher brackets reflect uncertainty over any late marketing lift from its Robin Hood-adjacent positioning or limited promotional tie-ins, such as a recent Fortnite trailer. Mid-September timing and competition from established holdovers further cap expectations for this Focus Features release, consistent with historical patterns for similar prestige or genre-driven titles lacking major star-driven or critical momentum.