Moonshot's strong 80.2% implied probability for third place on the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard stems primarily from its July 2026 Kimi K3 release—a 2.8-trillion-parameter open-weight MoE model with 1M-token context, native Agent Swarm support for up to 300 parallel sub-agents, and competitive or superior results on coding, reasoning, and long-horizon agent benchmarks versus closed U.S. systems at lower cost. This built on earlier K2-series gains in agentic tasks, driving overseas user and revenue growth while enabling developer adoption through tools like Kimi Code and open-sourced infrastructure. With resolution on September 30 based on live lab rankings, traders view these demonstrated capabilities as positioning Moonshot ahead of closer rivals like Z.ai or Meta, though rapid agent API updates from OpenAI and others introduce modest uncertainty in the final two weeks.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoTerzo miglior AI Agent Lab alla fine di settembre?
Terzo miglior AI Agent Lab alla fine di settembre?
Moonshot 80.4%
Z.ai 6.7%
DeepSeek 4.3%
SpaceXAI 4.1%
$47,877 Vol.
$47,877 Vol.
30 set 2026
Moonshot
80%
Z.ai
7%
DeepSeek
4%
SpaceXAI
4%
Meta
4%
4%
Anthropic
3%
Alibaba
3%
OpenAI
2%
Nvidia
1%
Amazon
1%
Xiaomi
<1%
Baidu
<1%
Mistral
<1%
MiniMax
<1%
ByteDance
<1%
Microsoft
<1%
Meituan
<1%
Moonshot 80.4%
Z.ai 6.7%
DeepSeek 4.3%
SpaceXAI 4.1%
$47,877 Vol.
$47,877 Vol.
30 set 2026
Moonshot
$29,085 Vol.
80%
Z.ai
$2,787 Vol.
7%
DeepSeek
$461 Vol.
4%
SpaceXAI
$563 Vol.
4%
Meta
$387 Vol.
4%
$472 Vol.
4%
Anthropic
$2,449 Vol.
3%
Alibaba
$1,077 Vol.
3%
OpenAI
$7,032 Vol.
2%
Nvidia
$460 Vol.
1%
Amazon
$387 Vol.
1%
Xiaomi
$353 Vol.
<1%
Baidu
$549 Vol.
<1%
Mistral
$383 Vol.
<1%
MiniMax
$363 Vol.
<1%
ByteDance
$383 Vol.
<1%
Microsoft
$368 Vol.
<1%
Meituan
$318 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard when the table under "Agent Arena" filtered for "Labs" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Moonshot's strong 80.2% implied probability for third place on the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard stems primarily from its July 2026 Kimi K3 release—a 2.8-trillion-parameter open-weight MoE model with 1M-token context, native Agent Swarm support for up to 300 parallel sub-agents, and competitive or superior results on coding, reasoning, and long-horizon agent benchmarks versus closed U.S. systems at lower cost. This built on earlier K2-series gains in agentic tasks, driving overseas user and revenue growth while enabling developer adoption through tools like Kimi Code and open-sourced infrastructure. With resolution on September 30 based on live lab rankings, traders view these demonstrated capabilities as positioning Moonshot ahead of closer rivals like Z.ai or Meta, though rapid agent API updates from OpenAI and others introduce modest uncertainty in the final two weeks.
This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard when the table under "Agent Arena" filtered for "Labs" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Mercato aperto: Aug 12, 2026, 7:40 PM ET
Volume
$47,877Data di fine
1 ott 2026Mercato aperto
Aug 12, 2026, 7:40 PM ETRisolutore
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard when the table under "Agent Arena" filtered for "Labs" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Moonshot's strong 80.2% implied probability for third place on the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard stems primarily from its July 2026 Kimi K3 release—a 2.8-trillion-parameter open-weight MoE model with 1M-token context, native Agent Swarm support for up to 300 parallel sub-agents, and competitive or superior results on coding, reasoning, and long-horizon agent benchmarks versus closed U.S. systems at lower cost. This built on earlier K2-series gains in agentic tasks, driving overseas user and revenue growth while enabling developer adoption through tools like Kimi Code and open-sourced infrastructure. With resolution on September 30 based on live lab rankings, traders view these demonstrated capabilities as positioning Moonshot ahead of closer rivals like Z.ai or Meta, though rapid agent API updates from OpenAI and others introduce modest uncertainty in the final two weeks.
This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard when the table under "Agent Arena" filtered for "Labs" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Volume
$47,877Data di fine
1 ott 2026Mercato aperto
Aug 12, 2026, 7:40 PM ETRisolutore
0x69c47De9D...Moonshot's strong 80.2% implied probability for third place on the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard stems primarily from its July 2026 Kimi K3 release—a 2.8-trillion-parameter open-weight MoE model with 1M-token context, native Agent Swarm support for up to 300 parallel sub-agents, and competitive or superior results on coding, reasoning, and long-horizon agent benchmarks versus closed U.S. systems at lower cost. This built on earlier K2-series gains in agentic tasks, driving overseas user and revenue growth while enabling developer adoption through tools like Kimi Code and open-sourced infrastructure. With resolution on September 30 based on live lab rankings, traders view these demonstrated capabilities as positioning Moonshot ahead of closer rivals like Z.ai or Meta, though rapid agent API updates from OpenAI and others introduce modest uncertainty in the final two weeks.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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