The open TX-30 seat, vacated after incumbent Jasmine Crockett pursued a Senate bid, features Democratic nominee Frederick Haynes, who won his March 2026 primary by a wide margin in a district with a strongly Democratic partisan voting index and consistent history of large margins for Democratic candidates. Republican nominee Everett Jackson advanced from his May runoff but faces structural barriers in the urban Dallas-area constituency. Trader consensus at 95.5% Democratic probability aligns with these fundamentals, including limited recent polling shifts or external events capable of altering the trajectory before the November general election. A late scandal, unusually low Democratic turnout, or national political realignment of historic scale would be required to meaningfully narrow the gap.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoTX-30 House Election Winner
TX-30 House Election Winner
$47,064 Vol.
$47,064 Vol.
2 nov 2026
Democratic Party
96%
Republican Party
3%
$47,064 Vol.
$47,064 Vol.
2 nov 2026
Democratic Party
$5,578 Vol.
96%
Republican Party
$41,487 Vol.
3%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-30 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The open TX-30 seat, vacated after incumbent Jasmine Crockett pursued a Senate bid, features Democratic nominee Frederick Haynes, who won his March 2026 primary by a wide margin in a district with a strongly Democratic partisan voting index and consistent history of large margins for Democratic candidates. Republican nominee Everett Jackson advanced from his May runoff but faces structural barriers in the urban Dallas-area constituency. Trader consensus at 95.5% Democratic probability aligns with these fundamentals, including limited recent polling shifts or external events capable of altering the trajectory before the November general election. A late scandal, unusually low Democratic turnout, or national political realignment of historic scale would be required to meaningfully narrow the gap.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-30 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Mercato aperto: Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ET
Volume
$47,064Data di fine
3 nov 2026Mercato aperto
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-30 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The open TX-30 seat, vacated after incumbent Jasmine Crockett pursued a Senate bid, features Democratic nominee Frederick Haynes, who won his March 2026 primary by a wide margin in a district with a strongly Democratic partisan voting index and consistent history of large margins for Democratic candidates. Republican nominee Everett Jackson advanced from his May runoff but faces structural barriers in the urban Dallas-area constituency. Trader consensus at 95.5% Democratic probability aligns with these fundamentals, including limited recent polling shifts or external events capable of altering the trajectory before the November general election. A late scandal, unusually low Democratic turnout, or national political realignment of historic scale would be required to meaningfully narrow the gap.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-30 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$47,064Data di fine
3 nov 2026Mercato aperto
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The open TX-30 seat, vacated after incumbent Jasmine Crockett pursued a Senate bid, features Democratic nominee Frederick Haynes, who won his March 2026 primary by a wide margin in a district with a strongly Democratic partisan voting index and consistent history of large margins for Democratic candidates. Republican nominee Everett Jackson advanced from his May runoff but faces structural barriers in the urban Dallas-area constituency. Trader consensus at 95.5% Democratic probability aligns with these fundamentals, including limited recent polling shifts or external events capable of altering the trajectory before the November general election. A late scandal, unusually low Democratic turnout, or national political realignment of historic scale would be required to meaningfully narrow the gap.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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