Recent polls from late October 2026 show the opposition Centre Party edging ahead of Isamaa in support for the first time since 2023, with averages near 23 percent versus 23 percent, followed by the Social Democratic Party near 16.5 percent and others lower. The governing coalition parties remain weak overall. These shifts occur as parties prepare candidate lists and messaging for the March 2027 Riigikogu election under proportional representation, where seat totals determine the largest party. Trader consensus prices Isamaa highest at 45.5 percent implied probability of winning the most seats, with Centre at 33 percent, reflecting caution over poll volatility and the potential for late campaign movements or coalition dynamics to alter the outcome. Multiple parties remain competitive, sustaining tight probabilities until clearer trends emerge.