Anthropic’s 75.5% implied probability reflects trader consensus that its recent large language model releases and benchmark leadership have positioned it ahead of rivals through the end of October. Strong performance in capability evaluations, iterative improvements to reasoning and safety features, and consistent execution on development timelines have driven this edge, while lower odds for OpenAI, Google, and Meta highlight slower perceived progress relative to Anthropic’s pace. The cluster of companies at 50% and single-digit probabilities for others underscore ongoing uncertainty around rapid capability jumps, new model launches, or competitive shifts that could still alter the ranking before the October deadline.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoQuale azienda ha il modello di IA numero1 alla fine di ottobre? (Controllo stile attivato)
Quale azienda ha il modello di IA numero1 alla fine di ottobre? (Controllo stile attivato)
Anthropic 75%
Meta 6%
Xiaomi 4.9%
Nvidia 4.9%
NUOVO
NUOVO
31 ott 2026
Anthropic
75%
Meta
6%
Xiaomi
5%
Nvidia
5%
Amazon
5%
5%
Tencent
4%
Microsoft
4%
OpenAI
4%
Meituan
4%
Alibaba
4%
DeepSeek
4%
StepFun
3%
SpaceXAI
3%
Moonshot
3%
Z.ai
3%
ByteDance
3%
MiniMax
3%
Mistral
3%
Baidu
1%
Thinky
8%
Anthropic 75%
Meta 6%
Xiaomi 4.9%
Nvidia 4.9%
NUOVO
NUOVO
31 ott 2026
Anthropic
$1,766 Vol.
75%
Meta
$92 Vol.
6%
Xiaomi
$226 Vol.
5%
Nvidia
$106 Vol.
5%
Amazon
$106 Vol.
5%
$39 Vol.
5%
Tencent
$110 Vol.
4%
Microsoft
$108 Vol.
4%
OpenAI
$72 Vol.
4%
Meituan
$110 Vol.
4%
Alibaba
$39 Vol.
4%
DeepSeek
$65 Vol.
4%
StepFun
$77 Vol.
3%
SpaceXAI
$39 Vol.
3%
Moonshot
$39 Vol.
3%
Z.ai
$47 Vol.
3%
ByteDance
$93 Vol.
3%
MiniMax
$120 Vol.
3%
Mistral
$112 Vol.
3%
Baidu
$54 Vol.
1%
Thinky
$110 Vol.
8%
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Anthropic’s 75.5% implied probability reflects trader consensus that its recent large language model releases and benchmark leadership have positioned it ahead of rivals through the end of October. Strong performance in capability evaluations, iterative improvements to reasoning and safety features, and consistent execution on development timelines have driven this edge, while lower odds for OpenAI, Google, and Meta highlight slower perceived progress relative to Anthropic’s pace. The cluster of companies at 50% and single-digit probabilities for others underscore ongoing uncertainty around rapid capability jumps, new model launches, or competitive shifts that could still alter the ranking before the October deadline.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Mercato aperto: Aug 12, 2026, 8:03 PM ET
Volume
$3,528Data di fine
31 ott 2026Mercato aperto
Aug 12, 2026, 8:03 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Anthropic’s 75.5% implied probability reflects trader consensus that its recent large language model releases and benchmark leadership have positioned it ahead of rivals through the end of October. Strong performance in capability evaluations, iterative improvements to reasoning and safety features, and consistent execution on development timelines have driven this edge, while lower odds for OpenAI, Google, and Meta highlight slower perceived progress relative to Anthropic’s pace. The cluster of companies at 50% and single-digit probabilities for others underscore ongoing uncertainty around rapid capability jumps, new model launches, or competitive shifts that could still alter the ranking before the October deadline.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Volume
$3,528Data di fine
31 ott 2026Mercato aperto
Aug 12, 2026, 8:03 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Anthropic’s 75.5% implied probability reflects trader consensus that its recent large language model releases and benchmark leadership have positioned it ahead of rivals through the end of October. Strong performance in capability evaluations, iterative improvements to reasoning and safety features, and consistent execution on development timelines have driven this edge, while lower odds for OpenAI, Google, and Meta highlight slower perceived progress relative to Anthropic’s pace. The cluster of companies at 50% and single-digit probabilities for others underscore ongoing uncertainty around rapid capability jumps, new model launches, or competitive shifts that could still alter the ranking before the October deadline.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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