Recent model releases and benchmark performances have positioned Anthropic’s Claude Opus 4.6 series as the clear frontrunner for third-best AI model by end of May, with traders assigning it a 61.5% implied probability. Google’s Gemini 3.1 Pro follows closely at 39% amid competitive multimodal capabilities, while OpenAI’s GPT-5 variants are viewed as locked into the top two spots. Ongoing leaderboards show Claude excelling in coding, long-context reasoning, and instruction following, giving it an edge over Gemini in key metrics. Upcoming developer updates and potential fine-tuning releases from both companies remain key swing factors before month-end resolution.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoWhich company has the third best AI model end of May?
Which company has the third best AI model end of May?
Anthropic 61%
Google 39%
OpenAI 1.7%
xAI <1%
$91,022 Vol.
$91,022 Vol.
31 mag 2026
Anthropic
61%
39%
OpenAI
2%
xAI
1%
Baidu
<1%
Meta
<1%
Z.ai
<1%
ByteDance
<1%
Alibaba
<1%
Moonshot
<1%
Meituan
<1%
DeepSeek
<1%
Microsoft
<1%
Amazon
<1%
Mistral
<1%
Anthropic 61%
Google 39%
OpenAI 1.7%
xAI <1%
$91,022 Vol.
$91,022 Vol.
31 mag 2026
Anthropic
$13,880 Vol.
61%
$10,692 Vol.
39%
OpenAI
$6,933 Vol.
2%
xAI
$7,462 Vol.
1%
Baidu
$5,736 Vol.
<1%
Meta
$5,586 Vol.
<1%
Z.ai
$4,345 Vol.
<1%
ByteDance
$7,320 Vol.
<1%
Alibaba
$5,483 Vol.
<1%
Moonshot
$3,740 Vol.
<1%
Meituan
$2,528 Vol.
<1%
DeepSeek
$6,753 Vol.
<1%
Microsoft
$3,591 Vol.
<1%
Amazon
$2,361 Vol.
<1%
Mistral
$4,613 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the third-highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on May 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Recent model releases and benchmark performances have positioned Anthropic’s Claude Opus 4.6 series as the clear frontrunner for third-best AI model by end of May, with traders assigning it a 61.5% implied probability. Google’s Gemini 3.1 Pro follows closely at 39% amid competitive multimodal capabilities, while OpenAI’s GPT-5 variants are viewed as locked into the top two spots. Ongoing leaderboards show Claude excelling in coding, long-context reasoning, and instruction following, giving it an edge over Gemini in key metrics. Upcoming developer updates and potential fine-tuning releases from both companies remain key swing factors before month-end resolution.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the third-highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on May 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Mercato aperto: Apr 14, 2026, 5:18 PM ET
Volume
$91,022Data di fine
31 mag 2026Mercato aperto
Apr 14, 2026, 5:18 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the third-highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on May 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Recent model releases and benchmark performances have positioned Anthropic’s Claude Opus 4.6 series as the clear frontrunner for third-best AI model by end of May, with traders assigning it a 61.5% implied probability. Google’s Gemini 3.1 Pro follows closely at 39% amid competitive multimodal capabilities, while OpenAI’s GPT-5 variants are viewed as locked into the top two spots. Ongoing leaderboards show Claude excelling in coding, long-context reasoning, and instruction following, giving it an edge over Gemini in key metrics. Upcoming developer updates and potential fine-tuning releases from both companies remain key swing factors before month-end resolution.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the third-highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on May 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Volume
$91,022Data di fine
31 mag 2026Mercato aperto
Apr 14, 2026, 5:18 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent model releases and benchmark performances have positioned Anthropic’s Claude Opus 4.6 series as the clear frontrunner for third-best AI model by end of May, with traders assigning it a 61.5% implied probability. Google’s Gemini 3.1 Pro follows closely at 39% amid competitive multimodal capabilities, while OpenAI’s GPT-5 variants are viewed as locked into the top two spots. Ongoing leaderboards show Claude excelling in coding, long-context reasoning, and instruction following, giving it an edge over Gemini in key metrics. Upcoming developer updates and potential fine-tuning releases from both companies remain key swing factors before month-end resolution.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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