Saudi Arabia’s longstanding condition that any normalization with Israel requires concrete progress toward a Palestinian state remains the dominant barrier, reinforced by ongoing regional conflicts and the lack of a viable two-state pathway as of mid-2026. Despite repeated U.S. diplomatic pressure under the second Trump administration—including public calls for Riyadh, Doha, and others to join and linkage of a civilian nuclear cooperation deal to accession—no new Arab or Muslim-majority state has completed a formal Abraham Accords agreement since Kazakhstan’s 2025 entry and Somaliland’s pledge. Exploratory talks with Syria, Lebanon, and additional states have produced statements but no verified signings, leaving traders to price in a high likelihood that structural political obstacles will persist through the end of 2026.