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icon for Un'opera d'arte sarà venduta per $150 milioni entro il 31 dicembre?

Un'opera d'arte sarà venduta per $150 milioni entro il 31 dicembre?

icon for Un'opera d'arte sarà venduta per $150 milioni entro il 31 dicembre?

Un'opera d'arte sarà venduta per $150 milioni entro il 31 dicembre?

57% probabilità
Polymarket
NUOVO

57% probabilità
Polymarket
NUOVO
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any single lot is sold at public auction for an all-in price (inclusive of buyer's premium) of at least $150 million at a major auction house between market creation and December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a major auction house will be one of the following: Sotheby's. Christie's, or Phillips. If no such lot is reported by December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve according to the official post-sales results as published on each auction house's official website. If the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable or no qualifying report is released by December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".The closely contested 53.5% trader consensus on “No” reflects a balanced art-market outlook where sustained ultra-high-net-worth demand meets supply constraints and macroeconomic caution. Record private transactions have occasionally cleared $150 million thresholds in prior cycles, yet public auction results have rarely approached that level recently, with flagship houses like Sotheby’s and Christie’s reporting softer top-end results amid selective consignments of blue-chip works. Economic uncertainty, fluctuating interest rates, and cautious institutional buying have tempered momentum, while strong performance in contemporary and Asian art segments has kept overall sentiment from collapsing. Key swing factors include fall 2026 auction season announcements, potential late-year private sales of museum-quality pieces, and any surprise masterpiece deaccessioning that could shift implied probabilities decisively before December 31.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any single lot is sold at public auction for an all-in price (inclusive of buyer's premium) of at least $150 million at a major auction house between market creation and December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, a major auction house will be one of the following: Sotheby's. Christie's, or Phillips. If no such lot is reported by December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

This market will resolve according to the official post-sales results as published on each auction house's official website. If the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable or no qualifying report is released by December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Volume
$1,193
Data di fine
1 gen 2027
Mercato aperto
Jun 3, 2026, 4:18 PM ET
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any single lot is sold at public auction for an all-in price (inclusive of buyer's premium) of at least $150 million at a major auction house between market creation and December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a major auction house will be one of the following: Sotheby's. Christie's, or Phillips. If no such lot is reported by December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve according to the official post-sales results as published on each auction house's official website. If the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable or no qualifying report is released by December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any single lot is sold at public auction for an all-in price (inclusive of buyer's premium) of at least $150 million at a major auction house between market creation and December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a major auction house will be one of the following: Sotheby's. Christie's, or Phillips. If no such lot is reported by December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve according to the official post-sales results as published on each auction house's official website. If the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable or no qualifying report is released by December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".The closely contested 53.5% trader consensus on “No” reflects a balanced art-market outlook where sustained ultra-high-net-worth demand meets supply constraints and macroeconomic caution. Record private transactions have occasionally cleared $150 million thresholds in prior cycles, yet public auction results have rarely approached that level recently, with flagship houses like Sotheby’s and Christie’s reporting softer top-end results amid selective consignments of blue-chip works. Economic uncertainty, fluctuating interest rates, and cautious institutional buying have tempered momentum, while strong performance in contemporary and Asian art segments has kept overall sentiment from collapsing. Key swing factors include fall 2026 auction season announcements, potential late-year private sales of museum-quality pieces, and any surprise masterpiece deaccessioning that could shift implied probabilities decisively before December 31.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any single lot is sold at public auction for an all-in price (inclusive of buyer's premium) of at least $150 million at a major auction house between market creation and December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, a major auction house will be one of the following: Sotheby's. Christie's, or Phillips. If no such lot is reported by December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

This market will resolve according to the official post-sales results as published on each auction house's official website. If the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable or no qualifying report is released by December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Volume
$1,193
Data di fine
1 gen 2027
Mercato aperto
Jun 3, 2026, 4:18 PM ET
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any single lot is sold at public auction for an all-in price (inclusive of buyer's premium) of at least $150 million at a major auction house between market creation and December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a major auction house will be one of the following: Sotheby's. Christie's, or Phillips. If no such lot is reported by December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve according to the official post-sales results as published on each auction house's official website. If the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable or no qualifying report is released by December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

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Domande frequenti

"Un'opera d'arte sarà venduta per $150 milioni entro il 31 dicembre?" è un mercato predittivo su Polymarket con 2 possibili esiti dove i trader comprano e vendono azioni in base a ciò che credono accadrà. L'esito attualmente in testa è "Un'opera d'arte sarà venduta per 150 milioni di dollari entro il 31 dicembre?" a 47%. I prezzi riflettono probabilità aggregate in tempo reale. Ad esempio, un'azione quotata a 47¢ implica che il mercato assegna collettivamente una probabilità di 47% a quell'esito. Queste quote cambiano continuamente man mano che i trader reagiscono a nuovi sviluppi e informazioni. Le azioni nell'esito corretto possono essere riscattate per $1 ciascuna alla risoluzione del mercato.

"Un'opera d'arte sarà venduta per $150 milioni entro il 31 dicembre?" è un mercato appena creato su Polymarket, lanciato il Jun 3, 2026. Come mercato nuovo, questa è la tua opportunità di essere tra i primi trader a stabilire le quote e i segnali di prezzo iniziali del mercato. Puoi anche aggiungere questa pagina ai preferiti per monitorare il volume e l'attività di trading man mano che il mercato guadagna visibilità.

Per fare trading su "Un'opera d'arte sarà venduta per $150 milioni entro il 31 dicembre?", esplora i 2 esiti disponibili elencati in questa pagina. Ogni esito mostra un prezzo corrente che rappresenta la probabilità implicita del mercato. Per prendere una posizione, seleziona l'esito che ritieni più probabile, scegli "Sì" per fare trading a suo favore o "No" per fare trading contro di esso, inserisci il tuo importo e clicca "Trading". Se il tuo esito scelto è corretto alla risoluzione del mercato, le tue azioni "Sì" pagano $1 ciascuna. Se è errato, pagano $0. Puoi anche vendere le tue azioni in qualsiasi momento prima della risoluzione se vuoi consolidare un profitto o limitare una perdita.

L'attuale favorito per "Un'opera d'arte sarà venduta per $150 milioni entro il 31 dicembre?" è "Un'opera d'arte sarà venduta per 150 milioni di dollari entro il 31 dicembre?" a 47%, il che significa che il mercato assegna una probabilità di 47% a quell'esito. Queste quote si aggiornano in tempo reale man mano che i trader comprano e vendono azioni, quindi riflettono l'ultima visione collettiva di ciò che è più probabile che accada. Controlla frequentemente o aggiungi questa pagina ai preferiti per seguire come cambiano le quote man mano che emergono nuove informazioni.

Le regole di risoluzione per "Un'opera d'arte sarà venduta per $150 milioni entro il 31 dicembre?" definiscono esattamente cosa deve accadere affinché ogni esito venga dichiarato vincitore — comprese le fonti di dati ufficiali utilizzate per determinare il risultato. Puoi consultare i criteri completi di risoluzione nella sezione "Regole" di questa pagina sopra i commenti. Ti consigliamo di leggere attentamente le regole prima di fare trading, poiché specificano le condizioni precise, i casi limite e le fonti che regolano come viene risolto questo mercato.