The ICJ’s South Africa v. Israel case remains in the written pleadings phase following Israel’s March 2026 counter-memorial filing. In May 2026 the court set South Africa’s reply deadline for November 2027 and Israel’s rejoinder for 2029, confirming that merits hearings and any potential final judgment on state responsibility under the Genocide Convention lie well beyond the December 2027 market cutoff. Parallel ICC proceedings have produced arrest warrants for Israeli officials on war-crimes and crimes-against-humanity charges dating to 2024, with no confirmed genocide indictments or convictions. Multiple states have filed Article 63 interventions, yet these procedural steps reinforce rather than accelerate resolution. Traders therefore price a high likelihood that neither court will deliver a genocide finding against Israel or its leaders inside the resolution window.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato13% probabilità
$99,211 Vol.
$99,211 Vol.
31 dic 2027
13% probabilità
$99,211 Vol.
$99,211 Vol.
31 dic 2027
This market will resolve to "Yes" if he International Criminal Court ("ICC"), the International Court of Justice ("ICJ"), or any ad hoc international tribunal with recognized legal standing, issues a judgment or conviction finding that either the State of Israel or any current or former Israeli official committed genocide or acts of genocide by December 31, 2027 at 11:59PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
For the judgment of an ad hoc tribunal to be relevant for purposes of this market, the tribunal must be established by the United Nations or any body thereof.
A first-instance conviction or judgment shall qualify for "Yes" resolution even if it remains subject to appeal or has not yet been affirmed on appeal.
Preliminary or provisional findings that are not judgments on the merits will not qualify for purposes of this market.
The resolution source will be official statements from the ICC, the ICJ, or a qualifying ad hoc tribunal; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
The ICJ’s South Africa v. Israel case remains in the written pleadings phase following Israel’s March 2026 counter-memorial filing. In May 2026 the court set South Africa’s reply deadline for November 2027 and Israel’s rejoinder for 2029, confirming that merits hearings and any potential final judgment on state responsibility under the Genocide Convention lie well beyond the December 2027 market cutoff. Parallel ICC proceedings have produced arrest warrants for Israeli officials on war-crimes and crimes-against-humanity charges dating to 2024, with no confirmed genocide indictments or convictions. Multiple states have filed Article 63 interventions, yet these procedural steps reinforce rather than accelerate resolution. Traders therefore price a high likelihood that neither court will deliver a genocide finding against Israel or its leaders inside the resolution window.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if he International Criminal Court ("ICC"), the International Court of Justice ("ICJ"), or any ad hoc international tribunal with recognized legal standing, issues a judgment or conviction finding that either the State of Israel or any current or former Israeli official committed genocide or acts of genocide by December 31, 2027 at 11:59PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
For the judgment of an ad hoc tribunal to be relevant for purposes of this market, the tribunal must be established by the United Nations or any body thereof.
A first-instance conviction or judgment shall qualify for "Yes" resolution even if it remains subject to appeal or has not yet been affirmed on appeal.
Preliminary or provisional findings that are not judgments on the merits will not qualify for purposes of this market.
The resolution source will be official statements from the ICC, the ICJ, or a qualifying ad hoc tribunal; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
For the judgment of an ad hoc tribunal to be relevant for purposes of this market, the tribunal must be established by the United Nations or any body thereof.
A first-instance conviction or judgment shall qualify for "Yes" resolution even if it remains subject to appeal or has not yet been affirmed on appeal.
Preliminary or provisional findings that are not judgments on the merits will not qualify for purposes of this market.
The resolution source will be official statements from the ICC, the ICJ, or a qualifying ad hoc tribunal; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Mercato aperto: Jun 29, 2026, 3:31 PM ET
Volume
$99,211Data di fine
31 dic 2027Mercato aperto
Jun 29, 2026, 3:31 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if he International Criminal Court ("ICC"), the International Court of Justice ("ICJ"), or any ad hoc international tribunal with recognized legal standing, issues a judgment or conviction finding that either the State of Israel or any current or former Israeli official committed genocide or acts of genocide by December 31, 2027 at 11:59PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
For the judgment of an ad hoc tribunal to be relevant for purposes of this market, the tribunal must be established by the United Nations or any body thereof.
A first-instance conviction or judgment shall qualify for "Yes" resolution even if it remains subject to appeal or has not yet been affirmed on appeal.
Preliminary or provisional findings that are not judgments on the merits will not qualify for purposes of this market.
The resolution source will be official statements from the ICC, the ICJ, or a qualifying ad hoc tribunal; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
The ICJ’s South Africa v. Israel case remains in the written pleadings phase following Israel’s March 2026 counter-memorial filing. In May 2026 the court set South Africa’s reply deadline for November 2027 and Israel’s rejoinder for 2029, confirming that merits hearings and any potential final judgment on state responsibility under the Genocide Convention lie well beyond the December 2027 market cutoff. Parallel ICC proceedings have produced arrest warrants for Israeli officials on war-crimes and crimes-against-humanity charges dating to 2024, with no confirmed genocide indictments or convictions. Multiple states have filed Article 63 interventions, yet these procedural steps reinforce rather than accelerate resolution. Traders therefore price a high likelihood that neither court will deliver a genocide finding against Israel or its leaders inside the resolution window.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if he International Criminal Court ("ICC"), the International Court of Justice ("ICJ"), or any ad hoc international tribunal with recognized legal standing, issues a judgment or conviction finding that either the State of Israel or any current or former Israeli official committed genocide or acts of genocide by December 31, 2027 at 11:59PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
For the judgment of an ad hoc tribunal to be relevant for purposes of this market, the tribunal must be established by the United Nations or any body thereof.
A first-instance conviction or judgment shall qualify for "Yes" resolution even if it remains subject to appeal or has not yet been affirmed on appeal.
Preliminary or provisional findings that are not judgments on the merits will not qualify for purposes of this market.
The resolution source will be official statements from the ICC, the ICJ, or a qualifying ad hoc tribunal; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
For the judgment of an ad hoc tribunal to be relevant for purposes of this market, the tribunal must be established by the United Nations or any body thereof.
A first-instance conviction or judgment shall qualify for "Yes" resolution even if it remains subject to appeal or has not yet been affirmed on appeal.
Preliminary or provisional findings that are not judgments on the merits will not qualify for purposes of this market.
The resolution source will be official statements from the ICC, the ICJ, or a qualifying ad hoc tribunal; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$99,211Data di fine
31 dic 2027Mercato aperto
Jun 29, 2026, 3:31 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The ICJ’s South Africa v. Israel case remains in the written pleadings phase following Israel’s March 2026 counter-memorial filing. In May 2026 the court set South Africa’s reply deadline for November 2027 and Israel’s rejoinder for 2029, confirming that merits hearings and any potential final judgment on state responsibility under the Genocide Convention lie well beyond the December 2027 market cutoff. Parallel ICC proceedings have produced arrest warrants for Israeli officials on war-crimes and crimes-against-humanity charges dating to 2024, with no confirmed genocide indictments or convictions. Multiple states have filed Article 63 interventions, yet these procedural steps reinforce rather than accelerate resolution. Traders therefore price a high likelihood that neither court will deliver a genocide finding against Israel or its leaders inside the resolution window.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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