The limited scope of recent U.S. military actions in Latin America has reinforced trader consensus that a full-scale invasion establishing territorial control remains unlikely through the end of 2026. The January 2026 special operation in Venezuela resulted in the capture of Nicolás Maduro without deploying sustained ground forces or occupying territory, consistent with administration emphasis on targeted interdiction, sanctions, and counter-narcotics cooperation rather than regime change via occupation. Subsequent efforts have focused on maritime strikes against designated cartels and diplomatic pressure on Cuba and others, without escalation signals or congressional authorization for broader combat. Historical patterns of U.S. interventions show that prolonged land campaigns require specific triggers absent in current policy. These developments align with the 77 percent probability assigned to no invasion occurring.