The January 2026 U.S. military operation that captured Nicolás Maduro and installed interim leadership under Delcy Rodríguez has shifted bilateral dynamics toward cooperation rather than confrontation. Washington and Caracas reestablished diplomatic ties, signed an oil production agreement granting U.S. entities substantial control over reserves, and advanced counternarcotics efforts, including the removal of Venezuela from the U.S. major drug transit list in mid-September. Ongoing Caribbean strikes target trafficking vessels, while stabilization plans emphasize economic recovery and political transition without large-scale ground occupation. Scheduled negotiations on elections and governance, alongside earthquake recovery and potential congressional scrutiny of extended U.S. involvement, remain key variables that could alter the trajectory of direct military escalation.