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icon for La tempesta tropicale Karina si rafforzerà fino a diventare un uragano?

La tempesta tropicale Karina si rafforzerà fino a diventare un uragano?

icon for La tempesta tropicale Karina si rafforzerà fino a diventare un uragano?

La tempesta tropicale Karina si rafforzerà fino a diventare un uragano?

Sì

99% probabilità
Polymarket
NUOVO

Sì

99% probabilità
Polymarket
NUOVO
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Tropical Storm Karina reaches hurricane strength at any point between market creation and September 5, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Karina reaches hurricane strength if it attains a maximum sustained wind speed (1-minute average) of at least 74 mph, corresponding to Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, as reported by the National Hurricane Center. Reaching hurricane strength at any single advisory during the market's timeframe is sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of the storm's intensity at other times. The primary resolution source for this market will be the operational advisories issued by the National Hurricane Center (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/). If Karina is located outside the National Hurricane Center's area of responsibility, the maximum sustained wind speed reported by the responsible Regional Specialized Meteorological Center will be used. This market will resolve based on the operational advisory data issued while the storm is active. Any revisions to the storm's peak intensity or category published later in a post-storm best-track report or Tropical Cyclone Report will not be considered for this market's resolution. If Karina does not reach hurricane strength by September 5, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or dissipates before reaching hurricane strength, this market will resolve to "No".Tropical Storm Karina, currently at 60-70 mph sustained winds just below hurricane threshold per National Hurricane Center advisories, sits in highly favorable conditions including light vertical wind shear, warm sea-surface temperatures, and ample mid-level moisture that support rapid organization. Latest satellite and Dvorak estimates show improving structure with forecasts projecting it will reach 74 mph within the next 24 hours and potentially major hurricane intensity shortly after. Model consensus, including SHIPS and ensemble guidance, reinforces this trajectory amid the storm's northwestward track well offshore Baja California. While the 99.5% market-implied probability reflects overwhelming trader confidence in these environmental drivers, modest uncertainties remain around inner-core alignment or any sudden dry-air entrainment that could briefly delay crossing the threshold.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Tropical Storm Karina reaches hurricane strength at any point between market creation and September 5, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Karina reaches hurricane strength if it attains a maximum sustained wind speed (1-minute average) of at least 74 mph, corresponding to Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, as reported by the National Hurricane Center. Reaching hurricane strength at any single advisory during the market's timeframe is sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of the storm's intensity at other times.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the operational advisories issued by the National Hurricane Center (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/). If Karina is located outside the National Hurricane Center's area of responsibility, the maximum sustained wind speed reported by the responsible Regional Specialized Meteorological Center will be used.

This market will resolve based on the operational advisory data issued while the storm is active. Any revisions to the storm's peak intensity or category published later in a post-storm best-track report or Tropical Cyclone Report will not be considered for this market's resolution.

If Karina does not reach hurricane strength by September 5, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or dissipates before reaching hurricane strength, this market will resolve to "No".
Volume
$4,653
Data di fine
6 set 2026
Mercato aperto
Aug 27, 2026, 5:19 PM ET

Fonte di risoluzione

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

Risolutore

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Tropical Storm Karina reaches hurricane strength at any point between market creation and September 5, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Karina reaches hurricane strength if it attains a maximum sustained wind speed (1-minute average) of at least 74 mph, corresponding to Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, as reported by the National Hurricane Center. Reaching hurricane strength at any single advisory during the market's timeframe is sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of the storm's intensity at other times. The primary resolution source for this market will be the operational advisories issued by the National Hurricane Center (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/). If Karina is located outside the National Hurricane Center's area of responsibility, the maximum sustained wind speed reported by the responsible Regional Specialized Meteorological Center will be used. This market will resolve based on the operational advisory data issued while the storm is active. Any revisions to the storm's peak intensity or category published later in a post-storm best-track report or Tropical Cyclone Report will not be considered for this market's resolution. If Karina does not reach hurricane strength by September 5, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or dissipates before reaching hurricane strength, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Tropical Storm Karina reaches hurricane strength at any point between market creation and September 5, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Karina reaches hurricane strength if it attains a maximum sustained wind speed (1-minute average) of at least 74 mph, corresponding to Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, as reported by the National Hurricane Center. Reaching hurricane strength at any single advisory during the market's timeframe is sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of the storm's intensity at other times. The primary resolution source for this market will be the operational advisories issued by the National Hurricane Center (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/). If Karina is located outside the National Hurricane Center's area of responsibility, the maximum sustained wind speed reported by the responsible Regional Specialized Meteorological Center will be used. This market will resolve based on the operational advisory data issued while the storm is active. Any revisions to the storm's peak intensity or category published later in a post-storm best-track report or Tropical Cyclone Report will not be considered for this market's resolution. If Karina does not reach hurricane strength by September 5, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or dissipates before reaching hurricane strength, this market will resolve to "No".Tropical Storm Karina, currently at 60-70 mph sustained winds just below hurricane threshold per National Hurricane Center advisories, sits in highly favorable conditions including light vertical wind shear, warm sea-surface temperatures, and ample mid-level moisture that support rapid organization. Latest satellite and Dvorak estimates show improving structure with forecasts projecting it will reach 74 mph within the next 24 hours and potentially major hurricane intensity shortly after. Model consensus, including SHIPS and ensemble guidance, reinforces this trajectory amid the storm's northwestward track well offshore Baja California. While the 99.5% market-implied probability reflects overwhelming trader confidence in these environmental drivers, modest uncertainties remain around inner-core alignment or any sudden dry-air entrainment that could briefly delay crossing the threshold.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Tropical Storm Karina reaches hurricane strength at any point between market creation and September 5, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Karina reaches hurricane strength if it attains a maximum sustained wind speed (1-minute average) of at least 74 mph, corresponding to Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, as reported by the National Hurricane Center. Reaching hurricane strength at any single advisory during the market's timeframe is sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of the storm's intensity at other times.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the operational advisories issued by the National Hurricane Center (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/). If Karina is located outside the National Hurricane Center's area of responsibility, the maximum sustained wind speed reported by the responsible Regional Specialized Meteorological Center will be used.

This market will resolve based on the operational advisory data issued while the storm is active. Any revisions to the storm's peak intensity or category published later in a post-storm best-track report or Tropical Cyclone Report will not be considered for this market's resolution.

If Karina does not reach hurricane strength by September 5, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or dissipates before reaching hurricane strength, this market will resolve to "No".
Volume
$4,797
Data di fine
6 set 2026
Mercato aperto
Aug 27, 2026, 5:19 PM ET

Fonte di risoluzione

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

Risolutore

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Tropical Storm Karina reaches hurricane strength at any point between market creation and September 5, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Karina reaches hurricane strength if it attains a maximum sustained wind speed (1-minute average) of at least 74 mph, corresponding to Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, as reported by the National Hurricane Center. Reaching hurricane strength at any single advisory during the market's timeframe is sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of the storm's intensity at other times. The primary resolution source for this market will be the operational advisories issued by the National Hurricane Center (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/). If Karina is located outside the National Hurricane Center's area of responsibility, the maximum sustained wind speed reported by the responsible Regional Specialized Meteorological Center will be used. This market will resolve based on the operational advisory data issued while the storm is active. Any revisions to the storm's peak intensity or category published later in a post-storm best-track report or Tropical Cyclone Report will not be considered for this market's resolution. If Karina does not reach hurricane strength by September 5, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or dissipates before reaching hurricane strength, this market will resolve to "No".

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Domande frequenti

"La tempesta tropicale Karina si rafforzerà fino a diventare un uragano?" è un mercato predittivo su Polymarket con 2 possibili esiti dove i trader comprano e vendono azioni in base a ciò che credono accadrà. L'esito attualmente in testa è "La tempesta tropicale Karina si rafforzerà fino a diventare un uragano?" a 99%. I prezzi riflettono probabilità aggregate in tempo reale. Ad esempio, un'azione quotata a 99¢ implica che il mercato assegna collettivamente una probabilità di 99% a quell'esito. Queste quote cambiano continuamente man mano che i trader reagiscono a nuovi sviluppi e informazioni. Le azioni nell'esito corretto possono essere riscattate per $1 ciascuna alla risoluzione del mercato.

"La tempesta tropicale Karina si rafforzerà fino a diventare un uragano?" è un mercato appena creato su Polymarket, lanciato il Aug 27, 2026. Come mercato nuovo, questa è la tua opportunità di essere tra i primi trader a stabilire le quote e i segnali di prezzo iniziali del mercato. Puoi anche aggiungere questa pagina ai preferiti per monitorare il volume e l'attività di trading man mano che il mercato guadagna visibilità.

Per fare trading su "La tempesta tropicale Karina si rafforzerà fino a diventare un uragano?", esplora i 2 esiti disponibili elencati in questa pagina. Ogni esito mostra un prezzo corrente che rappresenta la probabilità implicita del mercato. Per prendere una posizione, seleziona l'esito che ritieni più probabile, scegli "Sì" per fare trading a suo favore o "No" per fare trading contro di esso, inserisci il tuo importo e clicca "Trading". Se il tuo esito scelto è corretto alla risoluzione del mercato, le tue azioni "Sì" pagano $1 ciascuna. Se è errato, pagano $0. Puoi anche vendere le tue azioni in qualsiasi momento prima della risoluzione se vuoi consolidare un profitto o limitare una perdita.

L'attuale favorito per "La tempesta tropicale Karina si rafforzerà fino a diventare un uragano?" è "La tempesta tropicale Karina si rafforzerà fino a diventare un uragano?" a 99%, il che significa che il mercato assegna una probabilità di 99% a quell'esito. Queste quote si aggiornano in tempo reale man mano che i trader comprano e vendono azioni, quindi riflettono l'ultima visione collettiva di ciò che è più probabile che accada. Controlla frequentemente o aggiungi questa pagina ai preferiti per seguire come cambiano le quote man mano che emergono nuove informazioni.

Le regole di risoluzione per "La tempesta tropicale Karina si rafforzerà fino a diventare un uragano?" definiscono esattamente cosa deve accadere affinché ogni esito venga dichiarato vincitore — comprese le fonti di dati ufficiali utilizzate per determinare il risultato. Puoi consultare i criteri completi di risoluzione nella sezione "Regole" di questa pagina sopra i commenti. Ti consigliamo di leggere attentamente le regole prima di fare trading, poiché specificano le condizioni precise, i casi limite e le fonti che regolano come viene risolto questo mercato.