The 22nd Amendment's explicit two-term limit creates formidable structural barriers, as any repeal or modification would require two-thirds majorities in both chambers of Congress followed by ratification in three-fourths of the states—a threshold unmet by any recent amendment effort and unlikely amid divided legislative priorities. Trader consensus at 96.2% for "No" reflects the absence of viable legislative vehicles in 2026, Trump's recent public acknowledgments that "the law is very strong," and stalled proposals such as Rep. Andy Ogles' targeted amendment. Isolated comments from allies like Steve Bannon and minor resolutions have produced no measurable momentum. Late developments that could still shift odds include post-midterm changes in congressional control, successful court challenges to the amendment's application, or an unprecedented bipartisan push during the resolution window.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato4% probabilità
$13,082 Vol.
$13,082 Vol.
30 dic 2026
4% probabilità
$13,082 Vol.
$13,082 Vol.
30 dic 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump signs any bill into law that aims to repeal or alter presidential term limits as defined by the 22nd Amendment to the U.S. Constitution, such a bill is otherwise passed into law, or if the U.S. Supreme Court rules in a way that would permit a president to serve more than two terms by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Any law signed meeting these criteria will count, even if its implementation is immediately halted or delayed by judicial or other actions.
This market's resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration and U.S. Supreme Court decisions.The 22nd Amendment's explicit two-term limit creates formidable structural barriers, as any repeal or modification would require two-thirds majorities in both chambers of Congress followed by ratification in three-fourths of the states—a threshold unmet by any recent amendment effort and unlikely amid divided legislative priorities. Trader consensus at 96.2% for "No" reflects the absence of viable legislative vehicles in 2026, Trump's recent public acknowledgments that "the law is very strong," and stalled proposals such as Rep. Andy Ogles' targeted amendment. Isolated comments from allies like Steve Bannon and minor resolutions have produced no measurable momentum. Late developments that could still shift odds include post-midterm changes in congressional control, successful court challenges to the amendment's application, or an unprecedented bipartisan push during the resolution window.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump signs any bill into law that aims to repeal or alter presidential term limits as defined by the 22nd Amendment to the U.S. Constitution, such a bill is otherwise passed into law, or if the U.S. Supreme Court rules in a way that would permit a president to serve more than two terms by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Any law signed meeting these criteria will count, even if its implementation is immediately halted or delayed by judicial or other actions.
This market's resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration and U.S. Supreme Court decisions.
Any law signed meeting these criteria will count, even if its implementation is immediately halted or delayed by judicial or other actions.
This market's resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration and U.S. Supreme Court decisions.
Mercato aperto: Feb 2, 2026, 5:18 PM ET
Volume
$13,082Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Feb 2, 2026, 5:18 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump signs any bill into law that aims to repeal or alter presidential term limits as defined by the 22nd Amendment to the U.S. Constitution, such a bill is otherwise passed into law, or if the U.S. Supreme Court rules in a way that would permit a president to serve more than two terms by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Any law signed meeting these criteria will count, even if its implementation is immediately halted or delayed by judicial or other actions.
This market's resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration and U.S. Supreme Court decisions.The 22nd Amendment's explicit two-term limit creates formidable structural barriers, as any repeal or modification would require two-thirds majorities in both chambers of Congress followed by ratification in three-fourths of the states—a threshold unmet by any recent amendment effort and unlikely amid divided legislative priorities. Trader consensus at 96.2% for "No" reflects the absence of viable legislative vehicles in 2026, Trump's recent public acknowledgments that "the law is very strong," and stalled proposals such as Rep. Andy Ogles' targeted amendment. Isolated comments from allies like Steve Bannon and minor resolutions have produced no measurable momentum. Late developments that could still shift odds include post-midterm changes in congressional control, successful court challenges to the amendment's application, or an unprecedented bipartisan push during the resolution window.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump signs any bill into law that aims to repeal or alter presidential term limits as defined by the 22nd Amendment to the U.S. Constitution, such a bill is otherwise passed into law, or if the U.S. Supreme Court rules in a way that would permit a president to serve more than two terms by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Any law signed meeting these criteria will count, even if its implementation is immediately halted or delayed by judicial or other actions.
This market's resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration and U.S. Supreme Court decisions.
Any law signed meeting these criteria will count, even if its implementation is immediately halted or delayed by judicial or other actions.
This market's resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration and U.S. Supreme Court decisions.
Volume
$13,082Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Feb 2, 2026, 5:18 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The 22nd Amendment's explicit two-term limit creates formidable structural barriers, as any repeal or modification would require two-thirds majorities in both chambers of Congress followed by ratification in three-fourths of the states—a threshold unmet by any recent amendment effort and unlikely amid divided legislative priorities. Trader consensus at 96.2% for "No" reflects the absence of viable legislative vehicles in 2026, Trump's recent public acknowledgments that "the law is very strong," and stalled proposals such as Rep. Andy Ogles' targeted amendment. Isolated comments from allies like Steve Bannon and minor resolutions have produced no measurable momentum. Late developments that could still shift odds include post-midterm changes in congressional control, successful court challenges to the amendment's application, or an unprecedented bipartisan push during the resolution window.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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