Persistent monthly inflation near 2.9 percent has sustained the peso’s crawling-band depreciation under the Milei administration’s January 2026 regime, lifting the official USD/ARS rate from roughly 1,395 in early May toward levels that position the 1,600-plus bracket at a 44 percent implied probability. Analyst consensus now projects full-year 2026 inflation of 30–33 percent, while the central bank accumulates reserves ahead of nearly 20 billion dollars in maturing obligations, reinforcing expectations for continued nominal weakening. A recent Fitch upgrade to B- and improved fiscal balances have tempered tail risks, yet the remaining gap to the parallel rate and sticky utility-price adjustments continue to support the market’s heaviest weighting on the 1,550–1,599 and 1,500–1,549 ranges.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日1600.00以上 44%
1400.00〜1449.99 19.1%
1550.00–1599.99 19.0%
1,500.00–1,549.99 17.4%
新規
新規
2026/12/31
1250.00未満
2%
1250.00～1299.99
5%
1300.00〜1349.99
5%
1350.00〜1399.99
12%
1400.00〜1449.99
11%
1450.00～1499.99
3%
1,500.00–1,549.99
23%
1550.00–1599.99
24%
1600.00以上
44%
1600.00以上 44%
1400.00〜1449.99 19.1%
1550.00–1599.99 19.0%
1,500.00–1,549.99 17.4%
新規
新規
2026/12/31
1250.00未満
$419 Vol.
2%
1250.00～1299.99
$577 Vol.
5%
1300.00〜1349.99
$504 Vol.
5%
1350.00〜1399.99
$578 Vol.
12%
1400.00〜1449.99
$853 Vol.
11%
1450.00～1499.99
$1,026 Vol.
3%
1,500.00–1,549.99
$827 Vol.
23%
1550.00–1599.99
$551 Vol.
24%
1600.00以上
$1,623 Vol.
44%
This is a market about Argentina’s official wholesale U.S. dollar exchange rate at market close on the last business day of December 2026, as published by the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA).
This market will resolve according to the official wholesale USD to ARS exchange rate (Tipo de Cambio Mayorista, ($ por USD) Com. A 3500 | Referencia) at market close on the final business day of December 2026, as published by the BCRA on its official website (https://www.bcra.gob.ar/).
If the official rate for that date has not been published by the end of the 7th day after the end of the specified month, the market will resolve according to the most recently published official wholesale rate preceding that date.
The resolution source for this market will be the official BCRA publication. Resolution will occur once this figure is available.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA), which reports the Wholesale Exchange Rate to two decimal points (e.g., 1,408.02 ARS per USD). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.Persistent monthly inflation near 2.9 percent has sustained the peso’s crawling-band depreciation under the Milei administration’s January 2026 regime, lifting the official USD/ARS rate from roughly 1,395 in early May toward levels that position the 1,600-plus bracket at a 44 percent implied probability. Analyst consensus now projects full-year 2026 inflation of 30–33 percent, while the central bank accumulates reserves ahead of nearly 20 billion dollars in maturing obligations, reinforcing expectations for continued nominal weakening. A recent Fitch upgrade to B- and improved fiscal balances have tempered tail risks, yet the remaining gap to the parallel rate and sticky utility-price adjustments continue to support the market’s heaviest weighting on the 1,550–1,599 and 1,500–1,549 ranges.
This is a market about Argentina’s official wholesale U.S. dollar exchange rate at market close on the last business day of December 2026, as published by the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA).
This market will resolve according to the official wholesale USD to ARS exchange rate (Tipo de Cambio Mayorista, ($ por USD) Com. A 3500 | Referencia) at market close on the final business day of December 2026, as published by the BCRA on its official website (https://www.bcra.gob.ar/).
If the official rate for that date has not been published by the end of the 7th day after the end of the specified month, the market will resolve according to the most recently published official wholesale rate preceding that date.
The resolution source for this market will be the official BCRA publication. Resolution will occur once this figure is available.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA), which reports the Wholesale Exchange Rate to two decimal points (e.g., 1,408.02 ARS per USD). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
This market will resolve according to the official wholesale USD to ARS exchange rate (Tipo de Cambio Mayorista, ($ por USD) Com. A 3500 | Referencia) at market close on the final business day of December 2026, as published by the BCRA on its official website (https://www.bcra.gob.ar/).
If the official rate for that date has not been published by the end of the 7th day after the end of the specified month, the market will resolve according to the most recently published official wholesale rate preceding that date.
The resolution source for this market will be the official BCRA publication. Resolution will occur once this figure is available.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA), which reports the Wholesale Exchange Rate to two decimal points (e.g., 1,408.02 ARS per USD). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
マーケット開始日： Jan 21, 2026, 10:25 AM ET
音量
$6,959終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Jan 21, 2026, 10:25 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This is a market about Argentina’s official wholesale U.S. dollar exchange rate at market close on the last business day of December 2026, as published by the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA).
This market will resolve according to the official wholesale USD to ARS exchange rate (Tipo de Cambio Mayorista, ($ por USD) Com. A 3500 | Referencia) at market close on the final business day of December 2026, as published by the BCRA on its official website (https://www.bcra.gob.ar/).
If the official rate for that date has not been published by the end of the 7th day after the end of the specified month, the market will resolve according to the most recently published official wholesale rate preceding that date.
The resolution source for this market will be the official BCRA publication. Resolution will occur once this figure is available.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA), which reports the Wholesale Exchange Rate to two decimal points (e.g., 1,408.02 ARS per USD). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.Persistent monthly inflation near 2.9 percent has sustained the peso’s crawling-band depreciation under the Milei administration’s January 2026 regime, lifting the official USD/ARS rate from roughly 1,395 in early May toward levels that position the 1,600-plus bracket at a 44 percent implied probability. Analyst consensus now projects full-year 2026 inflation of 30–33 percent, while the central bank accumulates reserves ahead of nearly 20 billion dollars in maturing obligations, reinforcing expectations for continued nominal weakening. A recent Fitch upgrade to B- and improved fiscal balances have tempered tail risks, yet the remaining gap to the parallel rate and sticky utility-price adjustments continue to support the market’s heaviest weighting on the 1,550–1,599 and 1,500–1,549 ranges.
This is a market about Argentina’s official wholesale U.S. dollar exchange rate at market close on the last business day of December 2026, as published by the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA).
This market will resolve according to the official wholesale USD to ARS exchange rate (Tipo de Cambio Mayorista, ($ por USD) Com. A 3500 | Referencia) at market close on the final business day of December 2026, as published by the BCRA on its official website (https://www.bcra.gob.ar/).
If the official rate for that date has not been published by the end of the 7th day after the end of the specified month, the market will resolve according to the most recently published official wholesale rate preceding that date.
The resolution source for this market will be the official BCRA publication. Resolution will occur once this figure is available.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA), which reports the Wholesale Exchange Rate to two decimal points (e.g., 1,408.02 ARS per USD). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
This market will resolve according to the official wholesale USD to ARS exchange rate (Tipo de Cambio Mayorista, ($ por USD) Com. A 3500 | Referencia) at market close on the final business day of December 2026, as published by the BCRA on its official website (https://www.bcra.gob.ar/).
If the official rate for that date has not been published by the end of the 7th day after the end of the specified month, the market will resolve according to the most recently published official wholesale rate preceding that date.
The resolution source for this market will be the official BCRA publication. Resolution will occur once this figure is available.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA), which reports the Wholesale Exchange Rate to two decimal points (e.g., 1,408.02 ARS per USD). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
音量
$6,959終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Jan 21, 2026, 10:25 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Persistent monthly inflation near 2.9 percent has sustained the peso’s crawling-band depreciation under the Milei administration’s January 2026 regime, lifting the official USD/ARS rate from roughly 1,395 in early May toward levels that position the 1,600-plus bracket at a 44 percent implied probability. Analyst consensus now projects full-year 2026 inflation of 30–33 percent, while the central bank accumulates reserves ahead of nearly 20 billion dollars in maturing obligations, reinforcing expectations for continued nominal weakening. A recent Fitch upgrade to B- and improved fiscal balances have tempered tail risks, yet the remaining gap to the parallel rate and sticky utility-price adjustments continue to support the market’s heaviest weighting on the 1,550–1,599 and 1,500–1,549 ranges.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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