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icon for CDCは12月31日までにレベル4の警告を出しますか？
気候と科学·パンデミック

CDCは12月31日までにレベル4の警告を出しますか？

icon for CDCは12月31日までにレベル4の警告を出しますか？
気候と科学·パンデミック

CDCは12月31日までにレベル4の警告を出しますか？

12月 31

12月 31

はい

22% 確率
Polymarket

$71,394 Vol.

はい

22% 確率
Polymarket

$71,394 Vol.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the CDC issues a Level 4 (“Avoid All Travel”) Travel Health Notice for any disease by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A Level 4 notice listed for any amount of time during this market’s timeframe will suffice for a "Yes" resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be the CDC’s official Travel Health Notices page (https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/travel/notices); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Trader consensus implies a 79% probability against the CDC issuing a Level 4 "Avoid All Travel" notice by December 31, driven by the absence of any active Level 4 designations and no escalating outbreaks meeting the agency's criteria for extreme, life-threatening risks with unmitigated transmission. Official CDC surveillance as of May 2026 shows highest alerts at Level 2 for meningococcal disease in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, yellow fever in Venezuela, and global poliovirus circulation, with the latest addition being a Level 1 notice for ciguatera fish poisoning in Vanuatu on May 7. Sporadic H5N1 avian influenza human cases continue without evidence of sustained person-to-person spread, while clade I mpox outbreaks remain contained at lower alert levels. A recent hantavirus cluster linked to cruise ship travel prompted CDC response but has not triggered higher warnings. Ongoing epidemiological monitoring and weekly updates from CDC and WHO represent key data points that could shift odds if novel threats emerge.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the CDC issues a Level 4 (“Avoid All Travel”) Travel Health Notice for any disease by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A Level 4 notice listed for any amount of time during this market’s timeframe will suffice for a "Yes" resolution.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the CDC’s official Travel Health Notices page (https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/travel/notices); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
音量
$71,394
終了日
2026/12/31
マーケット開始日
Jan 19, 2026, 3:15 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the CDC issues a Level 4 (“Avoid All Travel”) Travel Health Notice for any disease by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A Level 4 notice listed for any amount of time during this market’s timeframe will suffice for a "Yes" resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be the CDC’s official Travel Health Notices page (https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/travel/notices); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the CDC issues a Level 4 (“Avoid All Travel”) Travel Health Notice for any disease by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A Level 4 notice listed for any amount of time during this market’s timeframe will suffice for a "Yes" resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be the CDC’s official Travel Health Notices page (https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/travel/notices); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Trader consensus implies a 79% probability against the CDC issuing a Level 4 "Avoid All Travel" notice by December 31, driven by the absence of any active Level 4 designations and no escalating outbreaks meeting the agency's criteria for extreme, life-threatening risks with unmitigated transmission. Official CDC surveillance as of May 2026 shows highest alerts at Level 2 for meningococcal disease in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, yellow fever in Venezuela, and global poliovirus circulation, with the latest addition being a Level 1 notice for ciguatera fish poisoning in Vanuatu on May 7. Sporadic H5N1 avian influenza human cases continue without evidence of sustained person-to-person spread, while clade I mpox outbreaks remain contained at lower alert levels. A recent hantavirus cluster linked to cruise ship travel prompted CDC response but has not triggered higher warnings. Ongoing epidemiological monitoring and weekly updates from CDC and WHO represent key data points that could shift odds if novel threats emerge.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the CDC issues a Level 4 (“Avoid All Travel”) Travel Health Notice for any disease by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A Level 4 notice listed for any amount of time during this market’s timeframe will suffice for a "Yes" resolution.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the CDC’s official Travel Health Notices page (https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/travel/notices); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
音量
$71,394
終了日
2026/12/31
マーケット開始日
Jan 19, 2026, 3:15 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the CDC issues a Level 4 (“Avoid All Travel”) Travel Health Notice for any disease by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A Level 4 notice listed for any amount of time during this market’s timeframe will suffice for a "Yes" resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be the CDC’s official Travel Health Notices page (https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/travel/notices); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

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よくある質問

「CDCは12月31日までにレベル4の警告を出しますか？」はPolymarket上の2個の結果が可能な予測市場で、トレーダーが何が起こるかに基づいてシェアを売買します。現在のリード結果は「CDCが12月31日までにレベル4警告を発出しますか？」で22%です。価格はコミュニティのリアルタイム確率を反映しています。例えば、22¢で取引されているシェアは、市場がその結果に22%の確率を集合的に割り当てていることを意味します。これらのオッズは継続的に変化します。正しい結果のシェアは市場決済時に各$1で引き換え可能です。

本日現在、「CDCは12月31日までにレベル4の警告を出しますか？」は$71.4Kの総取引量を生み出しています（Jan 19, 2026のマーケット開始以来）。この取引活動レベルはPolymarketコミュニティの強い関与を反映し、現在のオッズが幅広い市場参加者によって形成されていることを保証します。このページで直接、ライブの価格変動を追跡し、任意の結果で取引できます。

「CDCは12月31日までにレベル4の警告を出しますか？」で取引するには、このページに記載されている2個の利用可能な結果を閲覧します。各結果には市場の暗示確率を表す現在の価格が表示されています。ポジションを取るには、最も可能性が高いと思う結果を選び、「はい」で支持するか「いいえ」で反対するかを選択し、金額を入力して「取引」をクリックします。選んだ結果が市場決済時に正しければ、「はい」のシェアは各$1を支払います。正しくなければ$0です。決済前にいつでもシェアを売却できます。

「CDCは12月31日までにレベル4の警告を出しますか？」の現在のフロントランナーは「CDCが12月31日までにレベル4警告を発出しますか？」で22%であり、市場がこの結果に22%の確率を割り当てていることを意味します。これらのオッズはトレーダーがシェアを売買するにつれてリアルタイムで更新されます。頻繁に確認するか、このページをブックマークしてください。

「CDCは12月31日までにレベル4の警告を出しますか？」の決済ルールは、各結果が勝者と宣言されるために何が起こる必要があるかを正確に定義しています。これには結果を決定するために使用される公式データソースも含まれます。このページのコメント上にある「ルール」セクションで完全な決済基準を確認できます。取引前にルールを注意深く読むことをお勧めします。