Recent trial developments in Oakland federal court have solidified trader consensus against a large Elon Musk settlement from OpenAI or Sam Altman. Closing arguments highlighted statute-of-limitations barriers and Musk’s early awareness of the nonprofit-to-for-profit shift, with testimony underscoring that no binding commitment to remain a charity was breached. These factors, combined with Musk’s pre-trial settlement overture that went nowhere, have driven the 91.5% implied probability for “No.” Jury deliberations begin next week, after which the judge will consider any remedies, though procedural hurdles and historical precedent for similar founder disputes suggest limited upside for a $10 billion-plus outcome.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日はい
$79,584 Vol.
$79,584 Vol.
2026/12/31
はい
$79,584 Vol.
$79,584 Vol.
2026/12/31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Elon Musk is awarded or receives at least $10,000,000,000 USD in the initial trial of Musk v. Altman et al., Case No. 4:24-cv-04722-YGR (U.S. District Court, Northern District of California), by 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Qualifying amounts include monetary damages or payments awarded via jury verdict, court judgment, or settlement reached during or prior to the initial trial proceedings. Only cash or cash-equivalent compensation payable to Elon Musk (or entities controlled by him) will be counted. Non-monetary relief will not count.
If a mistrial is declared, or if the initial trial concludes without Elon Musk receiving at least $10,000,000,000 USD, this market will resolve to "No". Any retrial, appeal, or subsequent proceedings will not be considered for this market.
If Elon Musk is awarded or receives at least $10,000,000,000 USD during the initial trial proceedings, this market will immediately resolve to "Yes".
The primary resolution source will be official information from the U.S. court system. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent trial developments in Oakland federal court have solidified trader consensus against a large Elon Musk settlement from OpenAI or Sam Altman. Closing arguments highlighted statute-of-limitations barriers and Musk’s early awareness of the nonprofit-to-for-profit shift, with testimony underscoring that no binding commitment to remain a charity was breached. These factors, combined with Musk’s pre-trial settlement overture that went nowhere, have driven the 91.5% implied probability for “No.” Jury deliberations begin next week, after which the judge will consider any remedies, though procedural hurdles and historical precedent for similar founder disputes suggest limited upside for a $10 billion-plus outcome.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Elon Musk is awarded or receives at least $10,000,000,000 USD in the initial trial of Musk v. Altman et al., Case No. 4:24-cv-04722-YGR (U.S. District Court, Northern District of California), by 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Qualifying amounts include monetary damages or payments awarded via jury verdict, court judgment, or settlement reached during or prior to the initial trial proceedings. Only cash or cash-equivalent compensation payable to Elon Musk (or entities controlled by him) will be counted. Non-monetary relief will not count.
If a mistrial is declared, or if the initial trial concludes without Elon Musk receiving at least $10,000,000,000 USD, this market will resolve to "No". Any retrial, appeal, or subsequent proceedings will not be considered for this market.
If Elon Musk is awarded or receives at least $10,000,000,000 USD during the initial trial proceedings, this market will immediately resolve to "Yes".
The primary resolution source will be official information from the U.S. court system. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Qualifying amounts include monetary damages or payments awarded via jury verdict, court judgment, or settlement reached during or prior to the initial trial proceedings. Only cash or cash-equivalent compensation payable to Elon Musk (or entities controlled by him) will be counted. Non-monetary relief will not count.
If a mistrial is declared, or if the initial trial concludes without Elon Musk receiving at least $10,000,000,000 USD, this market will resolve to "No". Any retrial, appeal, or subsequent proceedings will not be considered for this market.
If Elon Musk is awarded or receives at least $10,000,000,000 USD during the initial trial proceedings, this market will immediately resolve to "Yes".
The primary resolution source will be official information from the U.S. court system. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
マーケット開始日： Apr 27, 2026, 7:47 PM ET
音量
$79,584終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Apr 27, 2026, 7:47 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Elon Musk is awarded or receives at least $10,000,000,000 USD in the initial trial of Musk v. Altman et al., Case No. 4:24-cv-04722-YGR (U.S. District Court, Northern District of California), by 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Qualifying amounts include monetary damages or payments awarded via jury verdict, court judgment, or settlement reached during or prior to the initial trial proceedings. Only cash or cash-equivalent compensation payable to Elon Musk (or entities controlled by him) will be counted. Non-monetary relief will not count.
If a mistrial is declared, or if the initial trial concludes without Elon Musk receiving at least $10,000,000,000 USD, this market will resolve to "No". Any retrial, appeal, or subsequent proceedings will not be considered for this market.
If Elon Musk is awarded or receives at least $10,000,000,000 USD during the initial trial proceedings, this market will immediately resolve to "Yes".
The primary resolution source will be official information from the U.S. court system. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent trial developments in Oakland federal court have solidified trader consensus against a large Elon Musk settlement from OpenAI or Sam Altman. Closing arguments highlighted statute-of-limitations barriers and Musk’s early awareness of the nonprofit-to-for-profit shift, with testimony underscoring that no binding commitment to remain a charity was breached. These factors, combined with Musk’s pre-trial settlement overture that went nowhere, have driven the 91.5% implied probability for “No.” Jury deliberations begin next week, after which the judge will consider any remedies, though procedural hurdles and historical precedent for similar founder disputes suggest limited upside for a $10 billion-plus outcome.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Elon Musk is awarded or receives at least $10,000,000,000 USD in the initial trial of Musk v. Altman et al., Case No. 4:24-cv-04722-YGR (U.S. District Court, Northern District of California), by 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Qualifying amounts include monetary damages or payments awarded via jury verdict, court judgment, or settlement reached during or prior to the initial trial proceedings. Only cash or cash-equivalent compensation payable to Elon Musk (or entities controlled by him) will be counted. Non-monetary relief will not count.
If a mistrial is declared, or if the initial trial concludes without Elon Musk receiving at least $10,000,000,000 USD, this market will resolve to "No". Any retrial, appeal, or subsequent proceedings will not be considered for this market.
If Elon Musk is awarded or receives at least $10,000,000,000 USD during the initial trial proceedings, this market will immediately resolve to "Yes".
The primary resolution source will be official information from the U.S. court system. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Qualifying amounts include monetary damages or payments awarded via jury verdict, court judgment, or settlement reached during or prior to the initial trial proceedings. Only cash or cash-equivalent compensation payable to Elon Musk (or entities controlled by him) will be counted. Non-monetary relief will not count.
If a mistrial is declared, or if the initial trial concludes without Elon Musk receiving at least $10,000,000,000 USD, this market will resolve to "No". Any retrial, appeal, or subsequent proceedings will not be considered for this market.
If Elon Musk is awarded or receives at least $10,000,000,000 USD during the initial trial proceedings, this market will immediately resolve to "Yes".
The primary resolution source will be official information from the U.S. court system. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
音量
$79,584終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Apr 27, 2026, 7:47 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent trial developments in Oakland federal court have solidified trader consensus against a large Elon Musk settlement from OpenAI or Sam Altman. Closing arguments highlighted statute-of-limitations barriers and Musk’s early awareness of the nonprofit-to-for-profit shift, with testimony underscoring that no binding commitment to remain a charity was breached. These factors, combined with Musk’s pre-trial settlement overture that went nowhere, have driven the 91.5% implied probability for “No.” Jury deliberations begin next week, after which the judge will consider any remedies, though procedural hurdles and historical precedent for similar founder disputes suggest limited upside for a $10 billion-plus outcome.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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