The overwhelming trader consensus for no change at the July FOMC meeting stems from elevated inflation pressures tied to higher energy prices amid ongoing Middle East tensions, alongside resilient labor market data and steady economic expansion. Recent April communications reinforced a cautious stance, with the target range held at 3.50–3.75 percent and market-implied odds aligning closely with futures pricing that anticipates an extended pause. This positioning draws on the balance of risks to the Fed’s dual mandate, where persistent price pressures outweigh growth concerns. A sharper-than-expected cooling in core inflation readings or weakening payrolls could still shift expectations toward easing, though such developments would need to materialize quickly ahead of the late-July decision.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日変更なし 94%
25ベーシスポイント引き上げ 3.5%
25ベーシスポイント引き下げ 3.0%
50ベーシスポイント以上の利下げ <1%
$5,547,331 Vol.
$5,547,331 Vol.
2026/07/29
50ベーシスポイント以上の利下げ
1%
25ベーシスポイント引き下げ
3%
変更なし
94%
25ベーシスポイント引き上げ
3%
50ベーシスポイント以上の利上げ
<1%
変更なし 94%
25ベーシスポイント引き上げ 3.5%
25ベーシスポイント引き下げ 3.0%
50ベーシスポイント以上の利下げ <1%
$5,547,331 Vol.
$5,547,331 Vol.
2026/07/29
50ベーシスポイント以上の利下げ
$540,956 Vol.
1%
25ベーシスポイント引き下げ
$420,132 Vol.
3%
変更なし
$654,594 Vol.
94%
25ベーシスポイント引き上げ
$3,401,737 Vol.
3%
50ベーシスポイント以上の利上げ
$529,911 Vol.
<1%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.The overwhelming trader consensus for no change at the July FOMC meeting stems from elevated inflation pressures tied to higher energy prices amid ongoing Middle East tensions, alongside resilient labor market data and steady economic expansion. Recent April communications reinforced a cautious stance, with the target range held at 3.50–3.75 percent and market-implied odds aligning closely with futures pricing that anticipates an extended pause. This positioning draws on the balance of risks to the Fed’s dual mandate, where persistent price pressures outweigh growth concerns. A sharper-than-expected cooling in core inflation readings or weakening payrolls could still shift expectations toward easing, though such developments would need to materialize quickly ahead of the late-July decision.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
マーケット開始日： Mar 19, 2026, 8:09 PM ET
音量
$5,547,331終了日
2026/07/29マーケット開始日
Mar 19, 2026, 8:09 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.The overwhelming trader consensus for no change at the July FOMC meeting stems from elevated inflation pressures tied to higher energy prices amid ongoing Middle East tensions, alongside resilient labor market data and steady economic expansion. Recent April communications reinforced a cautious stance, with the target range held at 3.50–3.75 percent and market-implied odds aligning closely with futures pricing that anticipates an extended pause. This positioning draws on the balance of risks to the Fed’s dual mandate, where persistent price pressures outweigh growth concerns. A sharper-than-expected cooling in core inflation readings or weakening payrolls could still shift expectations toward easing, though such developments would need to materialize quickly ahead of the late-July decision.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
音量
$5,547,331終了日
2026/07/29マーケット開始日
Mar 19, 2026, 8:09 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The overwhelming trader consensus for no change at the July FOMC meeting stems from elevated inflation pressures tied to higher energy prices amid ongoing Middle East tensions, alongside resilient labor market data and steady economic expansion. Recent April communications reinforced a cautious stance, with the target range held at 3.50–3.75 percent and market-implied odds aligning closely with futures pricing that anticipates an extended pause. This positioning draws on the balance of risks to the Fed’s dual mandate, where persistent price pressures outweigh growth concerns. A sharper-than-expected cooling in core inflation readings or weakening payrolls could still shift expectations toward easing, though such developments would need to materialize quickly ahead of the late-July decision.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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