Recent forecasts from NOAA and local models indicate a moderation from Chicago's midweek heat wave, with July 4 highs most likely settling in the mid-to-upper 80s amid increased cloud cover, higher dew points, and scattered showers or thunderstorms. These conditions limit surface heating and solar radiation compared to the clearer, hotter days earlier in the week, aligning with the historical July 4 normal of 84°F. Trader emphasis on the 84–87°F bins reflects model consensus on this range while acknowledging timing uncertainties in storm development that could shift the daily maximum by a degree or two.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日Highest temperature in Chicago on July 4?
Highest temperature in Chicago on July 4?
86-87°F 38%
84-85°F 34%
88-89°F 16%
82-83°F 7%
新規
$27,758 Vol.
新規
$27,758 Vol.
2026/07/04
75°F or below
<1%
76-77°F
<1%
78-79°F
1%
80-81°F
3%
82-83°F
7%
84-85°F
34%
86-87°F
38%
88-89°F
16%
90-91°F
2%
92-93°F
<1%
94°F or higher
<1%
86-87°F 38%
84-85°F 34%
88-89°F 16%
82-83°F 7%
新規
$27,758 Vol.
新規
$27,758 Vol.
2026/07/04
75°F or below
$1,081 Vol.
<1%
76-77°F
$1,435 Vol.
<1%
78-79°F
$1,316 Vol.
1%
80-81°F
$2,513 Vol.
3%
82-83°F
$4,868 Vol.
7%
84-85°F
$9,543 Vol.
34%
86-87°F
$1,984 Vol.
38%
88-89°F
$1,376 Vol.
16%
90-91°F
$1,238 Vol.
2%
92-93°F
$1,190 Vol.
<1%
94°F or higher
$1,213 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 4 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from NOAA and local models indicate a moderation from Chicago's midweek heat wave, with July 4 highs most likely settling in the mid-to-upper 80s amid increased cloud cover, higher dew points, and scattered showers or thunderstorms. These conditions limit surface heating and solar radiation compared to the clearer, hotter days earlier in the week, aligning with the historical July 4 normal of 84°F. Trader emphasis on the 84–87°F bins reflects model consensus on this range while acknowledging timing uncertainties in storm development that could shift the daily maximum by a degree or two.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 4 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
マーケット開始日： Jul 2, 2026, 9:02 PM ET
音量
$27,758終了日
2026/07/04マーケット開始日
Jul 2, 2026, 9:02 PM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 4 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from NOAA and local models indicate a moderation from Chicago's midweek heat wave, with July 4 highs most likely settling in the mid-to-upper 80s amid increased cloud cover, higher dew points, and scattered showers or thunderstorms. These conditions limit surface heating and solar radiation compared to the clearer, hotter days earlier in the week, aligning with the historical July 4 normal of 84°F. Trader emphasis on the 84–87°F bins reflects model consensus on this range while acknowledging timing uncertainties in storm development that could shift the daily maximum by a degree or two.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 4 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
音量
$27,758終了日
2026/07/04マーケット開始日
Jul 2, 2026, 9:02 PM ETRecent forecasts from NOAA and local models indicate a moderation from Chicago's midweek heat wave, with July 4 highs most likely settling in the mid-to-upper 80s amid increased cloud cover, higher dew points, and scattered showers or thunderstorms. These conditions limit surface heating and solar radiation compared to the clearer, hotter days earlier in the week, aligning with the historical July 4 normal of 84°F. Trader emphasis on the 84–87°F bins reflects model consensus on this range while acknowledging timing uncertainties in storm development that could shift the daily maximum by a degree or two.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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