Recent monsoon rainfall patterns and high humidity levels across northern India have kept Lucknow's daytime maximum temperatures close to seasonal averages near 33°C, supporting the market's strong 50.5% implied probability on 34°C and 29% on 33°C for August 8. Current forecasts from regional models indicate mostly cloudy skies with scattered showers, limiting solar heating and preventing spikes above 35°C, which traders have priced at just 14%. Near-normal monsoon activity over Uttar Pradesh, combined with typical August climatology of 32–34°C highs, reinforces these outcomes while low probabilities for extremes reflect the stabilizing effect of cloud cover and precipitation. Updated model runs closer to the date will provide further clarity on any intensification or clearing trends.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日8月8日のラクナウの最高気温は?
34°C 51%
33°C 30%
35°C 14%
32°C 8%
26°C or below
<1%
27°C
<1%
28°C
<1%
29°C
<1%
30°C
1%
31°C
2%
32°C
8%
33°C
30%
34°C
51%
35°C
14%
36°C or higher
2%
34°C 51%
33°C 30%
35°C 14%
32°C 8%
26°C or below
<1%
27°C
<1%
28°C
<1%
29°C
<1%
30°C
1%
31°C
2%
32°C
8%
33°C
30%
34°C
51%
35°C
14%
36°C or higher
2%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chaudhary Charan Singh Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/in/lucknow/VILK.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
マーケット開始日: Aug 6, 2026, 1:02 AM ET
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chaudhary Charan Singh Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/in/lucknow/VILK.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Recent monsoon rainfall patterns and high humidity levels across northern India have kept Lucknow's daytime maximum temperatures close to seasonal averages near 33°C, supporting the market's strong 50.5% implied probability on 34°C and 29% on 33°C for August 8. Current forecasts from regional models indicate mostly cloudy skies with scattered showers, limiting solar heating and preventing spikes above 35°C, which traders have priced at just 14%. Near-normal monsoon activity over Uttar Pradesh, combined with typical August climatology of 32–34°C highs, reinforces these outcomes while low probabilities for extremes reflect the stabilizing effect of cloud cover and precipitation. Updated model runs closer to the date will provide further clarity on any intensification or clearing trends.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日


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