Recent National Weather Service guidance and ensemble model runs indicate a high near or slightly above the August climatological normal of 83°F at Central Park, with the market’s tight clustering around 86–91°F bins reflecting uncertainty in afternoon cloud cover, sea-breeze timing, and any scattered convection. Southerly flow ahead of a weak front could enhance mixing and push readings into the upper 80s or low 90s if skies remain partly sunny, while increased humidity and early thunderstorm development would cap the maximum closer to 86–87°F. These short-term variables create the narrow probability spread among the top three outcomes.